Ban On Public Events Can Bring Down COVID-19 Transmission Rate By 24 Per Cent, Lancet Study

London: Ban on public events can bring down the COVID-19 reproduction number (R) number — a key measure of virus transmission — by 24 per cent in less than a month, according to a modelling study published in The Lancet journal. An R value above 1 indicates a growing outbreak, whereas an R value below 1 indicates a shrinking outbreak. The research using data from 131 countries suggests that individual measures, including closure of schools and workplaces, ban on public events and gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with a reduction in transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Also Read: Air Pollution May Hinder India’s Fight Against COVID-19, Say Scientists

However, combined measures are more effective at reducing transmission, the researchers said.

We found that combining different measures showed the greatest effect on reducing the transmission of COVID-19. As we experience a resurgence of the virus, policymakers will need to consider combinations of measures to reduce the R number. Our study can inform decisions on which measures to introduce or lift, and when to expect to see their effects, but this will also depend on the local context — the R number at any given time, the local healthcare capacity, and the social and economic impact of measures, said Professor Harish Nair from the University of Edinburgh, UK.

When looking at the measures individually, a ban on public events was associated with the greatest reduction in R — 24 per cent reduction after 28 days — which the researchers suggest may be because they are likely to prevent super spreader events and it was often the first measure to be introduced in countries.

Also Read: Oxford COVID-19 Vaccine Produces Immune Response Among Elderly And Young, Says AstraZeneca

The measures most strongly associated with an increase in R were lifting bans on gatherings of more than ten people and re-opening of schools, according to the researchers. Although reopening schools was associated with a 24 per cent increase in the R by day 28, the researchers caution that they were unable to account for different precautions some countries implemented for reopening schools, for example limiting class sizes, distancing measure, routine deep cleaning, personal handwashing, face masks, and thermal temperature checks on arrival.

They said these are essential for safer school reopening and should be taken into account when interpreting this finding.

We found an increase in R after reopening schools but is not clear whether the increase is attributable to specific age groups, where there may be substantial differences in adherence to social distancing measures within and outside classrooms. Furthermore, more data are needed to understand the specific role of schools in increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission through robust contact tracing, Mr. Nair added.

The study, however, does not account for other potentially influential factors that have an impact on R — including, among other things, compliance with the interventions, changes in population behaviour, sub-national differences in R, or the effects of contact tracing and isolation – all of which vary by context.

Using the R number as a proxy for transmission also has limitations, as it is difficult to estimate accurately, particularly when prevalence is low, the researchers said. In this modelling study, data on daily country-level estimates of R were linked with data on what measures those countries had in place from January 1, 2020 to July 20, 2020. The timeline of each country was divided into individual phases when all measures remained the same in that country. The analysis included 790 phases from 131 countries and the authors used a model to measure the association between which measures were in place and changes in the R.

Also Read: COVID-19: India’s Case Fatality Rate Lowest Since March 22 At 1.5 Per Cent

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollution, waste management, plastic ban, manual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene.