Coronavirus Outbreak Explained: Here’s India’s Current COVID-19 Status, Using The ‘R’ Rate Method

Coronavirus Outbreak Explained: Here’s India’s Current COVID-19 Status, Using The ‘R’ Rate Method

The 'R' or the Reproduction Rate is a measure of how many people are infected by one infected person; where a declining R rate means the spread of COVID-19 is reducing and an upward trend in the R rate means the spread is increasing
Coronavirus Explainers, Swasth India
- in Coronavirus Explainers, Swasth India
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COVID-19 Recoveries 3.5 Times More Than Active Cases In IndiaThe actual caseload of COVID-19 in India comprises only 21.87 per cent of the total positive cases
Highlights
  • R rate is the measure of how many people can one person infect
  • Target for all states and country as a whole is to have 'R' below 1.0
  • India’s average R rate is around 1.06, which shows an improvement

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the latest COVID-19 review meeting on August 11, said that the ten worst affected states, account for 80 per cent of the active coronavirus cases in India. These ten states include Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Punjab, Bihar, Gujarat, Telangana, and Uttar Pradesh, where the PM said, if the virus is defeated, then the country will also emerge victorious, in its fight against the pandemic. The coronavirus attacks different regions of a country with differing intensity, but how does the country overall fare at present? The experts are using the ‘R’ rate, a method used by several countries, to measure India’s progress in managing the pandemic.

In simple terms, the ‘R’, or the Reproduction Rate, measures how infectious the coronavirus is, as it is a measure of how many people are infected by one infected person.

Also Read: COVID-19 Explainer: What Is Far UV-C Light, And Can It Kill The Coronavirus On Surfaces?

Professor Sitabhra Sinha of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, has published his work on modelling and measuring ‘R’ factor in various international journals. Professor Sinha helped NDTV in analysing the R rate or the coronavirus in national and state perspective.

A declining trend of ‘R’ indicates that the state is winning the battle as the ‘R’ rate is falling i.e. the virus is not spreading or is not as infectious as earlier. Whereas, a rising trend of ‘R’ indicates that the virus is spreading faster.

If ‘R’ is 2.0, it indicates that one person who is infected with COVID-19 will on average infect two other people. Those two persons will each go on to infect another two persons – and so the infection spreads exponentially in society resulting in a pandemic. It is crucially important to ensure ‘R’ falls below 1.0, that is, one infected person spreads the virus to fewer than one other person. Only when the R falls below 1.0 will the pandemic slowly fade away.

Using the ‘R’ rate, we look at the status of coronavirus in 20 large states and Union Territories (UT) of India. The first target for all states is to have ‘R’ below 1.0.

Also Read: Why Is India Experiencing Spike In COVID-19 Cases? Dr Randeep Guleria OF AIIMS Explains

States With Declining ‘R’ Rate

Ten of the larger states/UTs in India have the ‘R’ showing a declining trend. These are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

Coronavirus Outbreak Explained: Here’s India’s Current COVID-19 Status, Using The ‘R’ Rate Method
States With Declining ‘R’ Rate

Of these ten states, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir have the ‘R’ below 1.

However, this doesn’t mean the states have successfully won the fight against the pandemic, as the trends for Telangana show that the ‘R’ fell below 1.0 for a while (in the third week of July) and then spiked again.

As per the data, Telangana needs a policy effort to bring the ‘R’ back down to under 1.0 to ensure that the spread of the virus slows down. Whereas, there are some worrying signs in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh that the encouraging downward trend of ‘R’ may have halted – urgent measures are needed to ensure that the downward trend continues.

Also Read: India’s Single-Day Count Of COVID-19 Cases More Than That Of US, Brazil In Past 7 Days: WHO Data

States Displaying A Sudden Spike

In six of the larger states of India, there are some indicators of a new spike or a surge in the spread of the coronavirus, as per the R rate methodology. These six states are Assam, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.

Coronavirus Outbreak Explained: Here’s India’s Current COVID-19 Status, Using The ‘R’ Rate Method
States Displaying A Sudden Spike

Assam and Chhattisgarh had brought ‘R’ down to under 1.0, in the initial days of the pandemic, but in the last two weeks, the ‘R’ has risen above 1.30.

As per the data analysis, Delhi has been the most successful state in ‘flattening the curve’ of coronavirus cases, but there is a significant new concern as per the ‘R’ trend of the national capital.
While the level of ‘R’ in Delhi is still low, in the last two weeks, there has been a rise in ‘R’ from 0.75 to 1.05.

Among the most successful states in combating the coronavirus has been Tamil Nadu, but, like Delhi, there has been a rise in R recently – and even though the level of R is still around 1.0, the trend may be rising further.

Also Read: If COVID-19 Is Defeated In The 10 Worst Hit States, The Entire Country Will Emerge Victorious: Prime Minister Narendra Modi

States With High ‘R’ Rate

The four most worrying states in India are Bihar, West Bengal, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, as per the R rate indicators. In these states, the virus does not appear to be under control, as seen with the ‘R’ rate.

Coronavirus Outbreak Explained: Here’s India’s Current COVID-19 Status, Using The ‘R’ Rate Method
States With High ‘R’ Rate

Of these four states, Bihar seems to be the most worrying state of the lot, as the state’s R rate remains high. Punjab seemed to have somewhat controlled the virus about two-months ago, but the current ‘R’ rate indicates that the virus could spread again rapidly.

West Bengal’s data shows a second surge, which has taken the ‘R’ on the higher side. Lastly, as per the trends, Uttar Pradesh, has had a consistently high ‘R’ rate, and despite the recent downturn in ‘R’, the level remains high.

Also Read: As Fight Against COVID-19 Intensifies, Healthcare Professionals Push For A Policy To Tackle Future Pandemics

When it comes to the all-India average, ‘R’ indicates that contrary to the widely-held view that the virus is out of control in India, the situation in India appears to be improving, with the R falling from 1.19 to 1.05.

Coronavirus Outbreak Explained: Here’s India’s Current COVID-19 Status, Using The ‘R’ Rate Method
India’s overall status

The rate of increase in new COVID cases is finally falling. A decline in the percentage increase – rather than a decline in absolute numbers – is the first indication of a possible “flattening of the curve” of the pandemic, as per the data.

This daily percentage decline appears to be a continuing trend so far – it has dropped from 3.7 per cent only a few weeks ago to 2.3 per cent currently.

Yet, even this rate of increase is by far the highest in the world, so it is imperative that this declining trend continues. At the current rate of increase, India will overtake Brazil in the total number of COVID cases by mid-September and could even overtake the United States by early October. If this declining trend continues and hopefully strengthens, this outcome will be avoided.

The level of fatality rate in India has consistently been lower than in most countries, as the data suggests. The world average is 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent with some countries at a much higher level, like Italy at 14 per cent and Spain at 10 per cent.

India is also seeing a trend of lower and lower fatalities, especially over the last three-four weeks, falling from 2.4 per cent to 1.9 per cent.

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

World

3,04,91,096Cases
87,62,381Active
2,07,76,975Recovered
9,51,740Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 188 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 3,04,91,096 and 9,51,740 have died; 87,62,381 are active cases and 2,07,76,975 have recovered as on September 19, 2020 at 3:48 am.

India

53,08,014 93337Cases
10,13,964 -3790Active
42,08,431 95880Recovered
85,619 1247Deaths
In India, there are 53,08,014 confirmed cases including 85,619 deaths. The number of active cases is 10,13,964 and 42,08,431 have recovered as on September 19, 2020 at 2:30 am.

State & District Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
DistrictCases
Akola757
Aurangabad1974
Dhule228
Jalgaon1039
Mumbai45478
Mumbai Suburban5363
Nagpur692
Nashik1575
Palghar1421
Pune9920
Satara629
Solapur1291
Thane13660
Yavatmal150
Ahmednagar190
Amravati291
Beed54
Bhandara41
Buldhana88
Chandrapur32
Hingoli208
Jalna201
Kolhapur646
Latur139
Nanded176
Nandurbar42
Parbhani78
Raigad1462
Ratnagiri350
Sangli145
Gadchiroli42
gondia69
Osmanabad125
Sindhudurg114
Wardha11
Washim13

1167496 21656

301273

834432 22078

31791 440

DistrictCases
Chittoor319
Guntur511
Krishna557
Kurnool795
Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*296
Anantapur428
East Godavari356
Prakasam104
Srikakulam183
Visakhapatnam103
West Godavari199
Y.S.R.205
Vizianagaram23

609558 8096

84423

519891 11803

5244 67

DistrictCases
Bengaluru Rural40
Bengaluru Urban529
Mysuru107
Bagalkote103
Ballari60
Belagavi337
Bidar219
Chikkaballapura149
Dakshina Kannada179
Dharwad61
Gadag45
Kalaburagi669
Mandya346
Tumakuru36
Uttara Kannada95
Vijayapura201
Chamarajanagara0
Chikkamagaluru19
Chitradurga14
Davangere204
Hassan205
Haveri24
Kodagu4
Kolar29
Koppal5
Raichur369
Ramanagara3
Shivamogga67
Udupi1176
Yadgir538

502982 8626

101148

394026 10949

7808 179

DistrictCases
North Goa57
South Goa69

27379 596

5730 118

21314 470

335 8

DistrictCases
Chengalpattu1314
Chennai23324
Kanchipuram503
Madurai322
Namakkal83
Ranipet133
Thanjavur130
Thiruvallur774
Thiruvarur67
Tiruppur116
Vellore71
Virudhunagar185
Ariyalur444
Coimbatore188
Cuddalore477
Dharmapuri15
Dindigul175
Erode75
Kallakurichi324
Kanniyakumari110
Karur88
Nagapattinam99
Perambalur133
Pudukkottai53
Ramanathapuram119
Salem258
Sivaganga46
Tenkasi103
The Nilgiris17
Theni129
Tiruchirappalli119
Tirunelveli433
Tirupathur45
Tiruvannamalai496
Tuticorin333
Villupuram509
Krishnagiri43

530908 5488

46506

475717 5525

8685 67

DistrictCases
Kannur357
Kottayam73
Alappuzha76
Idukki40
Kasaragod333
Kollam118
Kozhikode90
Malappuram119
Palakkad224
Pathanamthitta98
Thiruvananthapuram104
Thrissur106
Ernakulam60
Wayanad36

126381 4167

35795 1415

90085 2740

501 12

DistrictCases
Raipur46
Korba100
Balod41
Baloda Bazar85
Balrampur17
Bastar2
Bemetara21
Bijapur2
Bilaspur100
Dantewada0
Dhamtari6
Durg31
Gariyaband10
Janjgir-Champa56
Jashpur77
Kabirdham52
Kanker19
Kondagaon0
Korea39
Mahasamund54
Mungeli87
Narayanpur0
Raigarh47
Rajnandgaon52
Sukma0
Surajpur9
Surguja14

81617 3842

36580 544

44392 3281

645 17

DistrictCases
Hyderabad2475
MedchalMalkajgiri75
Ranga Reddy183
Suryapet87
Vikarabad40
Warangal Urban32
Adilabad22
Jagitial77
Jangoan8
Jayashankar Bhupalapally9
Jogulamba Gadwal40
Kamareddy11
Karimnagar17
Khammam26
Kumuram Bheem Asifabad8
Mahabubnagar30
Mancherial43
Medak11
Nalgonda33
Narayanpet3
Nirmal21
Nizamabad76
RajannaSircilla16
Sangareddy26
Bhadradri Kothagudem5
Mahabubabad10
Mulugu3
Nagarkurnool8
Peddapalli5
Siddipet7
Wanaparthy1
Warangal Rural4
YadadriBhuvanagiri40

169169 2123

30636

137508 2151

1025 9

DistrictCases
Baleshwar190
Bhadrak137
Jajapur322
Dhenkanal36
Kalahandi33
Kendrapara164
Khordha238
Koraput16
Sundargarh102
Anugul26
Balangir129
Bargarh16
Boudh34
Cuttack155
Deogarh33
Gajapati61
Ganjam581
Jagatsinghapur91
Jharsuguda8
Kandhamal28
Kendujhar34
Malkangiri20
Mayurbhanj73
Nabarangpur2
Nayagarh86
Nuapada69
Puri103
Rayagada2
Sambalpur16
Sonepur29

171341 4180

33092 66

137567 4101

682 13

DistrictCases
Barwani60
Bhopal1880
Dewas140
Dhar132
East Nimar266
Gwalior211
Indore3839
Jabalpur276
Ujjain799
Agar Malwa15
Alirajpur3
Betul35
Burhanpur351
Chhindwara16
Dindori29
Harda4
Hoshangabad37
Khargone196
Mandsaur112
Morena109
Raisen71
Ratlam51
Sagar228
Shajapur39
Shandol14
Sheopur26
Tikamgarh18
Vidisha37
Anuppur22
Ashoknagar13
Balaghat9
Bhind87
Chhatarpur35
Damoh26
Datia12
Guna8
Jhabua14
Katni3
Mandla15
Narsinghpur17
Neemuch319
Niwari0
Panna20
Rajgarh31
Rewa39
Satna24
Sehore12
Seoni2
Shivpuri15
Sidhi17
Singrauli13
Umaria10

100458 2552

21605

76952 2554

1901 24

DistrictCases
Ahmadabad17125
Anand107
Arvalli134
Banas Kantha147
Bhavnagar146
Gandhinagar410
PanchMahals107
Surat2311
Vadodara1555
Bharuch56
Botad55
Chhotaudepur37
Dang5
Dohad43
GirSomnath45
Jamnagar63
Kachchh99
Kheda98
Mahesana159
Mahisagar125
Narmada25
Naysari35
Patan105
Rajkot135
SabarKantha101
Surendranagar55
Tapi6
Valsad47
Amreli16
DevbhumiDwarka22
Junagadh31
Morbi4
Porbandar11

120336 1410

16076 101

100974 1293

3286 16

DistrictCases
Ajmer379
Banswara91
Bharatpur563
Jaipur2177
Jhalawar329
Jodhpur1748
Kota503
Nagaur500
Alwar90
Barmer34
Bhilwara250
Bikaner112
Chittorgarh188
Churu81
Dausa61
Dholpur60
Dungarpur374
Hanumangarh31
Jaisalmer53
Jhunjhunu64
Karauli17
Pali352
Rajsamand140
SawaiMadhopur26
Sikar231
Tonk171
Udaipur724
Baran59
Bundi5
Ganganagar8
Jalore164
Pratapgarh14
Sirohi130

111290 1817

17717 222

92265 1580

1308 15

DistrictCases
Faridabad867
Sonipat404
Ambala93
Bhiwani60
CharkiDadri43
Fatehabad38
Gurugram2950
Hisar98
Jhajjar114
Jind38
Kaithal48
Karnal104
Kurukshetra55
Nuh68
Palwal120
Panchkula39
Panipat78
Rohtak145
Sirsa50
Yamunanagar19
Mahendragarh47
Rewari56

106261 2488

21291 277

83878 2188

1092 23

DistrictCases
Agra933
Aligarh215
Amroha80
Bareilly17
Bijnor157
Bulandshahr166
Firozabad190
Gautam Buddha Nagar1119
Kanpur Nagar286
Lucknow386
Mathura129
Meerut504
Moradabad252
Muzaffarnagar117
Rae Bareli78
Rampur203
Saharanpur298
Sant Kabeer Nagar132
Varanasi243
Auraiya37
Ayodhya120
Azamgarh138
Baghpat68
Bahraich73
Balrampur49
Banda27
Basti214
Bhadohi60
Budaun23
Etah52
Etawah46
Ghaziabad794
Ghazipur159
Gonda59
Gorakhpur166
Hapur225
Hardoi49
Jalaun41
Jaunpur194
Jhansi41
Kannauj69
Kasganj16
Kaushambi6
Mainpuri46
Mau48
Mirzapur22
Pilibhit15
Pratapgarh15
Prayagraj30
Sambhal116
Shamli40
Shravasti23
Sitapur32
Sultanpur97
Unnao42
Ambedkar Nagar92
Amethi206
Ballia60
Barabanki168
Chandauli38
Chitrakoot4
Deoria143
Farrukhabad36
Fatehpur3
Hamirpur3
Hathras43
Kanpur Dehat4
Kheri72
Kushi Nagar67
Lalitpur3
Maharajganj85
Mahoba3
Shahjahanpur25
Siddharth Nagar159
Sonbhadra10

342788 6494

67825

270094 6806

4869 98

DistrictCases
Central4817
East2472
New Delhi3405
North3059
North East1914
North West5463
Shahdara1580
South2329
South East2446
South West2391
West4768

238828 4127

32250 529

201671 3568

4907 30

DistrictCases
Dhubri30
Goalpara19
Marigaon50
Baksa14
Barpeta28
Biswanath16
Bongaigaon12
Cachar80
Charaideo29
Chirang6
Darrang20
Dhemaji47
Dibrugarh61
Dima Hasao86
Golaghat203
Hailakandi57
Hojai89
Jorhat24
Kamrup42
Kamrup Metro276
KarbiAnglong13
Karimganj85
Kokrajhar37
Lakhimpur57
Majuli2
Nagaon143
Nalbari23
Sivasagar20
Sonitpur27
South SalmaraMancachar4
Tinsukia84
Udalguri28
West KarbiAnglong5

152858 2509

28631 423

123687 2074

540 12

DistrictCases
East District3
North District0
South District3
West District0

2303 29

422

1857 68

24 2

DistrictCases
Buxar134
Gaya115
Munger188
Patna279
Rohtas256
Arwal52
Aurangabad75
Banka134
Begusarai243
Bhagalpur266
Bhojpur103
Darbhanga143
Gopalganj123
Jehanabad178
Kaimur (bhabua)105
Lakhisarai72
Madhepura82
Madhubani199
Nalanda123
Nawada122
PurbiChamparan138
Purnia135
Saran101
Siwan139
Vaishali87
Araria68
Jamui47
Katihar175
Khagaria253
Kishanganj75
Muzaffarpur96
Pashchim Champaran57
Saharsa88
Samastipur139
Sheikhpura118
Sheohar20
Sitamarhi73
Supaul87

165218 1167

12609

151750 1710

859 4

DistrictCases
24 Paraganas North1031
24 Paraganas South281
Darjeeling97
Howrah1435
Jalpaiguri88
Kalimpong18
Kolkata2777
Maldah235
Medinipur East153
Medinipur West159
Hooghly604
Murshidabad125
Nadia139
Paschim Bardhaman70
Purba Bardhaman130
Alipurduar39
Bankura116
Birbhum206
Coochbehar210
Dinajpur Dakshin50
Dinajpur Uttar216
Jhargram9
Purulia66

218772 3192

24509 173

190021 2960

4242 59

DistrictCases
South Andamans33
Nicobars1
North And Middle Andaman1

3631 27

165

3414 36

52

DistrictCases
Pondicherry111
Karaikal2
Mahe4
Yanam0

21913 485

4736

16715 462

462 31

DistrictCases
Anjaw0
Changlang31
Dibang Valley0
East Kameng0
East Siang1
Kamle0
KraDaadi0
KurungKumey0
Leparada0
Lohit3
Longding0
Lower Dibang Valley0
Lower Siang0
Lower Subansiri0
Namsai2
PakkeKessang1
Papum Pare8
Shi Yomi0
Siang0
Tawang1
Tirap0
Upper Siang1
Upper Subansiri0
West Kameng0
West Siang1

7005 154

1886 15

5106 139

13

DistrictCases
Dimapur20
Kiphire3
Kohima7
Longleng0
Mokokchung0
Mon8
Peren2
Phek1
Tuensang3
Wokha0
Zunheboto0

5357 51

1213 20

4129 31

15

DistrictCases
Dadra And Nagar Haveli20

2859 28

218

2639 31

2

DistrictCases
Ranchi148
Bokaro16
Deoghar5
Dhanbad32
Garhwa80
Giridih19
Hazaribagh110
Jamtara2
Koderma58
Simdega48
Chatra1
Dumka5
East Singhbum170
Godda2
Gumla28
Khunti10
Latehar14
Lohardaga8
Pakur4
Palamu27
Ramgarh75
Sahebganj0
SaraikelaKharsawan20
West Singhbhum21

68578 1478

13924 221

54052 1245

602 12

DistrictCases
Gomati74
North Tripura14
Dhalai196
Khowai24
Sepahijala174
South Tripura53
Unakoti49
West Tripura45

21484 535

7107

14142 583

235 7

DistrictCases
Kargil77
LehLadakh43

3635 59

987 15

2600 42

48 2

DistrictCases
Anantnag395
Bandipora175
Shopian255
Srinagar300
Baramulla271
Budgam110
Ganderbal37
Jammu138
Kathua53
Kulgam295
Kupwara231
Rajouri39
Ramban151
Reasi26
Samba25
Udhampur155
Mirpur0
Muzaffarabad0
Doda27
Kishtwar10
Poonch35
Pulwama108

61041 1330

20770 531

39305 784

966 15

DistrictCases
Chamba29
Hamirpur117
Kangra105
Sirmaur11
Solan32
Una41
Bilaspur21
Kinnaur2
Kullu4
Lahaul And Spiti0
Mandi21
Shimla10

11622 432

4430 284

7081 135

111 13

DistrictCases
Jalandhar297
Ludhiana293
Patiala132
Amritsar485
Barnala25
Faridkot74
Firozepur50
Gurdaspur154
Hoshiarpur140
Kapurthala44
Mansa31
Moga65
Pathankot86
S.A.S Nagar137
Sangrur107
Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)99
Sri Muktsar Sahib71
Tarn Taran163
Bathinda60
Fatehgarh Sahib57
Fazilka53
Rupnagar (Ropar)74

92833 2801

21662 94

68463 2645

2708 62

DistrictCases
Haridwar94
Dehradun370
Nainital323
Almora71
Bageshwar31
Chamoli36
Champawat45
PauriGarhwal36
Pithoragarh43
Rudraprayag30
Tehri Garhwal110
Udam Singh Nagar83
Uttar Kashi24

38007 868

11293

26250 1285

464 4

DistrictCases
Bishnupur7
Chandel5
Churachandpur32
Imphal East10
Imphal West21
Jiribam3
Kakching2
Kamjong5
Kangpokpi26
Noney1
Pherzawl3
Senapati6
Tamenglong2
Tengnoupal9
Thoubal18
Ukhrul4

8607 177

1926 85

6629 91

52 1

DistrictCases
Chandigarh313

9506 250

2978

6415 353

113 4

DistrictCases
East Khasi Hills22
East Garo Hills0
East Jaintia Hills0
North Garo Hills1
Ribhoi0
South Garo Hills0
South West Garo Hills4
South West Khasi Hills0
West Garo Hills5
West Jaintia Hills1
West Khasi Hills1

4445 89

1976

2437 95

32 1

DistrictCases
Aizawl10
Champhai0
Hnahthial0
Khawzawl0
Kolasib11
Lawngtlai2
Lunglei2
Mamit8
Saiha0
Saitual1
Serchhip0

1548 14

575

973 24

0

DistrictCases
Lakshadweep District0

0

0

0

0

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