COVID-19 Could See A Declining Trend By Mid-September: A Mathematical Analysis

New Delhi: COVID-19 pandemic in the country could see a declining trend by mid of September this year, according to the findings of mathematical analysis by Union Health Ministry officials. The study has pointed out that when the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100 per cent threshold and the epidemic will be extinguished. This means that the transmission of the virus has more or less stopped, stated the study.

Researchers have used the methodology- Bailey’s Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) or Bailey’s Model on the secondary data of the cumulative number of total COVID-19 cases in India from March 1 to May 19.

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The analysis has been published in the latest issue of the online journal- Epidemiology International. The authors of the study are Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health) and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) DGHS in the Health Ministry.

However, the authors have said that there is a need for evidence-based decision making at Central, State and District level to achieve this. Mathematical modelling can be an important tool to achieve this.

The study noted that the actual epidemic in India started on March 2 and since then the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases started to rise in the country.

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As per the Regression Analysis (Linear) of Bailey’s Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR), COVID 19, India, it is observed that the trend might to 100 in the month of mid of September 2020. So, it may be interpreted that at that point of time, the number of infected will be equal to the number of removed patients, and that’s why the coefficient will reach 100 per cent threshold, the study said.

According to researchers of the study, the benefit of using this mathematical model is that it takes into consideration of various factors including the spread of disease (field activities and other public health measures), clinical care/ recovery rate, the effectiveness of any treatment/vaccine which might be introduced later over a long period of time and not just short-term fluctuations.

The authors have pointed out the need for effective public health measures at the community level including those recommended for containment and buffer zones.

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The study indicated that natural calamity, unpredictable population movement and important national or international events may have a significant influence on this model.

India on Sunday (June 7) reported the highest single-day spike of 9,971 more COVID-19 cases and 287 deaths in 24 hours.

The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare informed that the country’s coronavirus count has now climbed to 2,46,628 including 1,20,406 active cases and 6,929 deaths.

In India, 1,19,293 people have been cured/discharged/migrated so far.

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