Connect with us

Coronavirus Outbreak

Delhi Manages To Control COVID Spike But Experts Cautious, Say Dip In Cases Has To Be Sustained

According to the Delhi government, more than 82,000 COVID-19 patients have recovered. Though this is a good sign, experts have cautioned the authorities and said this need to be sustained

Delhi Manages To Control COVID Spike But Experts Cautious, Say Dip In Cases Has To Be Sustained
Highlights
  • As of July 10, Delhi reported 1,07,051 coronavirus cases: Health Ministry
  • Delhi has 21,567 active cases for COVID-19 as per data by health ministry
  • Experts have cautioned the authorities and said this needs to be sustained

New Delhi: The national capital’s COVID-19 count crossed the grim one lakh milestone this week but the number of active cases is dipping as is the positivity rate while the recovery rate is going up, raising hopes of the epidemic curve flattening if the trends continue.  As testing is significantly ramped up, the death rate, too, has fallen marginally and the projected explosion of cases hasn’t happened. The signs are undoubtedly good but these are just baby steps as Delhi moves ahead in its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, cautioned experts.

Also Read: COVID-19 Situation In Delhi Has Improved, Says Centre; Recovery Rate Stands At 76 Per Cent

It is early days yet, they said, stressing the urgent need to continue with social distancing, masks, hand hygiene and other dos and don’ts to ward off the infection. Lowering the guard could lead to cases surging again.

“We can say the curve seems to be flattening, though this virus is novel and can spring a surprise,” a senior doctor at the frontline of the fight in a private hospital said on the condition of anonymity.

The dip in cases is encouraging but it would be prudent to have multiple data points created over the next two weeks to better map the trends and to be able to say the curve has flattened. In order to draw an inference about effective containment, the decline that is being observed has to be sustained over a period of time, added Dr Samiran Panda, Head of Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) Epidemiology and Communicable Division.

Several experts are encouraged by the trend of average fresh cases per day and the slide in positivity rate over the last fortnight. On March 1, the city recorded its first COVID-19 case. More than three months later, the number of cases is 1,07,051 with 3,258 fatalities, according to the Health Ministry on Friday.

However, 82,226 cases have recovered and 21,567 cases are still active. The number of active figures is the lowest in 28 days.  The peak came on June 23 when the city recorded 3,947 fresh cases. For three days after that, there were 3,000 cases a day. But then the figures dipped. From June 27 to July 3, the average fresh cases per day was 2,494 compared to 3,446 cases the previous week. The trend has continued — July 4 (2,505), July 5 (2,244), July 6 (1,379), July 7 (2,008), July 8 (2,033) and July 9 (2,187).

The positivity rate in Delhi has been consistently going down as well – from 31 per cent in the June 8-14 week to 11 per cent in June 29-July 5 week, according to official figures.

So, from 3,947 peak cases so far on June 23, the average fresh cases in the last several consecutive days have shown a fall, hovering between 1,379 and 2,889. Also, the positivity rate has come down.  But we need both these metrics to come down over a sustained period of time, said the doctor at the private hospital.

“Things are looking up and data trends have been very encouraging,” said Mahesh Verma, Head of a panel set up by the Delhi government to strengthen the preparedness of hospitals to battle the coronavirus.  Mr Verma, a doctor and vice-chancellor of the Indraprastha University, also said recently that the COVID-19 tally in the city may not reach 5.5 lakh cases by July end.

Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia had shared the 5.5 lakh figure with reporters last month. However, one needs to see how the virus behaves during the monsoon, Mr Verma added.  Working on the multiple tracks of home isolation, increased testing and wider public engagement may have done the trick for the Arvind Kejriwal-led government.  The number of tests has also gone up sharply – from 5,500 tests per day in the first week of June to 11,000 by mid-June and 21,000 by July.

Joint efforts have improved the situation in Delhi. Rapid antigen technology is being used at a large scale which has increased testing capability, Union Home Ministry Joint Secretary Punya Salila Srivastava told reporters on Thursday.

“Till July 8, over 6.79 lakh tests have been done which translates into 35,780 tests per million population. Now every day over 20,000 tests are being done but in spite of the increase in tests, active cases are under control,” Mr Srivastava said.

While increased testing seemed to increase the number of cases, what it means is that COVID positive patients are now being traced and isolated in a timely manner, a Delhi government official explained.  So while cases escalated and breached the one lakh mark on July 6, active cases and positivity rate reduced and recovery rate increased, he added. On July 5, the recovery rate was 71.74 per cent, up from 63.32 per cent the week before it. This was better than the national recovery rate of 60.7 per cent.

Also, the death rate in Delhi fell marginally to 3.08 per cent on July 5 vis-a-vis 3.16 per cent the previous week.  The Delhi government aggressively promoted home isolation of COVID-positive patients who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms. These constitute almost 80 per cent of all COVID-positive cases, an official said.

Also Read: World’s Largest COVID-19 Care Facility With 10,000 Beds Inaugurated In Delhi

Till early June, there were only eight private hospitals that were treating coronavirus patients and these had a sum total of 700 beds available. This was in addition to 2,500 beds in Delhi government hospitals.  Today, there are over 15,000 COVID beds in Delhi. Much of this increased capacity is still vacant, with only 38 per cent of the COVID beds occupied.

It has meant that the people of Delhi feel a sense of confidence that if they need a hospital bed, it would be easily available in a hospital of their choice, a Delhi government official said.

Also Read: Delhi Government Updates Plasma Policy, Recipient Hospital Needs To Find A Replacement Donor

Besides, the Corona App at the disposal of people to monitor the number of beds, counselling given to patients, and teleconsultation provided to patients in home isolation have strengthened the COVID management system, he said.  In a first for the country, a ‘plasma bank’ has been set up by the Delhi government so t patients can easily access convalescent plasma.  An aggressive awareness campaign for plasma donation has been conducted with Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal encouraging recovered patients to donate their plasma.  Active cases coming down is a “strong sign” of COVID recovery in the city.

Also Read: 6 Months On, What Do We Know About The Coronavirus Pandemic

“Increased testing, isolation, and focussed treatment has contributed to this, and things are looking up for Delhi,” the official said.

“Success of Delhi in tackling the coronavirus lies not just in its capacity to expand hospital infrastructure, increase testing or aggressively isolate; it lies in the ability of the government to understand the psychological and emotional challenges that this pandemic has created,” he added further.

Also Read: 6 Months On, A Recap Of How the Coronavirus Pandemic Unfolded

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

World

26,78,24,983Cases
22,84,48,447Active
3,40,97,388Recovered
52,79,148Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 196 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 26,78,24,983 and 52,79,148 have died; 22,84,48,447 are active cases and 3,40,97,388 have recovered as on December 9, 2021 at 3:47 am.

India

3,46,66,241 9,419Cases
94,742 1,009Active
3,40,97,388 8,251Recovered
4,74,111 159Deaths
In India, there are 3,46,66,241 confirmed cases including 4,74,111 deaths. The number of active cases is 94,742 and 3,40,97,388 have recovered as on December 9, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

66,40,888 893

9,964 157

64,89,720 1,040

1,41,204 10

Kerala

51,78,892 5,038

41,615 887

50,95,263 4,039

42,014 112

Karnataka

29,99,098 399

7,284 155

29,53,565 238

38,249 6

Tamil Nadu

27,32,648 703

7,946 36

26,88,142 728

36,560 11

Andhra Pradesh

20,74,217 181

2,011 3

20,57,749 176

14,457 2

Uttar Pradesh

17,10,502 10

139 7

16,87,452 3

22,911

West Bengal

16,20,803 574

7,576 0

15,93,659 568

19,568 6

Delhi

14,41,514 65

404 28

14,16,010 36

25,100 1

Odisha

10,50,760 255

1,931 11

10,40,403 264

8,426 2

Chhattisgarh

10,07,075 37

341 9

9,93,140 27

13,594 1

Rajasthan

9,54,984 40

236 16

9,45,792 24

8,956

Gujarat

8,27,873 67

417 45

8,17,361 22

10,095

Madhya Pradesh

7,93,288 14

140 1

7,82,619 13

10,529

Haryana

7,71,904 29

223 15

7,61,626 14

10,055

Bihar

7,26,259 9

36 6

7,14,133 3

12,090

Telangana

6,77,546 205

3,871 19

6,69,673 185

4,002 1

Assam

6,18,042 134

2,541 24

6,09,374 158

6,127

Punjab

6,03,578 22

350 0

5,86,614 20

16,614 2

Jharkhand

3,49,383 16

129 7

3,44,113 23

5,141

Uttarakhand

3,44,402 17

192 3

3,36,799 14

7,411

Jammu And Kashmir

3,38,198 151

1,639 38

3,32,070 111

4,489 2

Himachal Pradesh

2,27,753 69

722 14

2,23,174 81

3,857 2

Goa

1,79,307 65

441 37

1,75,478 28

3,388

Mizoram

1,37,377 320

3,049 10

1,33,819 309

509 1

Puducherry

1,29,128 23

230 1

1,27,022 22

1,876

Manipur

1,25,429 23

325 5

1,23,119 28

1,985

Tripura

84,888 14

94 11

83,968 3

826

Meghalaya

84,631 12

240 11

82,916 23

1,475

Chandigarh

65,515 7

67 2

64,628 5

820

Arunachal Pradesh

55,298 3

29 2

54,989 5

280

Sikkim

32,390 8

200 2

31,785 6

405

Nagaland

32,143 1

116 2

31,328 3

699

Ladakh

21,749 14

230 17

21,304 31

215

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,683

0 0

10,679

4

Lakshadweep

10,405

11 0

10,343

51

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,691 1

3 0

7,559 1

129

Coronavirus Outbreak: Full CoverageTesting CentresFAQs
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Highlights From The 12-Hour Telethon

Leaving No One Behind

Mental Health

Environment

Join Us