Connect with us

Coronavirus Outbreak

India’s Next Phase Of Virus Crisis Likely To Be Localised Outbreaks: Experts

A government survey suggests its actual COVID-19 cases may be around 300 million, as many young people showed no symptoms

India's Next Phase Of Virus Crisis Likely To Be Localised Outbreaks: Experts
Highlights
  • Over 1.5 lakh people have died in the country due to COVID-19: Centre
  • Eight of 10 recent infections have been reported by five states: Centre
  • India is witnessing a phase of multiple epidemics: Expert

New Delhi: Experts say that the relatively low hospitalisation and fatality rates in India suggest the coronavirus pandemic is approaching its next phase – largely manageable local outbreaks. Although a handful of states are reporting a spurt in infections, for a country of 1.35 billion people with limited health facilities and where the practice of wearing masks and social distancing is falling off, the positive trend, if it holds, will be a respite. It could also help India keep its economy open without any national lockdown.

Also Read: COVID Vaccination Drive For Senior Citizens, People Over 45 With Comorbidities Takes Off Smoothly In Telangana

At more than 11 million, India has reported the highest number of cases in the world after the United States. A government survey suggests its actual cases may be around 300 million, as many young people showed no symptoms. The death toll stands at 157,248. Recorded cases have fall continuously since a mid-September peak, before again rising since early February.

Eight of 10 recent infections have been reported by five states, mainly Maharashtra and Kerala. Since a multi-month low in cases and deaths on Feb. 9, India’s case count has gone up but the fatality rate has fallen from 0.856% to 0.683% on Monday. The overall rate for India is 1.4% and 2.2% for the world.

Rajib Dasgupta, an epidemiologist and professor of community health at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, said India was witnessing a phase of “multiple epidemics within a country” where the entire population is not equally susceptible.

In this phase, the emphasis has to be a lot more local, a lot of local capacities will be put to test. The positive thing – what’s being seen in Europe – is that as subsequent surges come, as the knowledge has improved, the management is better, both in terms of public health management as well as clinical care, and actually deaths go down, he said.

Mr. Dasgupta said the aim now should be to try and contain the virus within local clusters, instead of measures like inter-state curbs on travellers.

Also Read: India Emerging As COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing Hub, Says Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan

Government health official Vinod Kumar Paul told a news conference on Tuesday that India was nowhere close to attaining herd immunity through natural infection or vaccination, requiring states to continue their surveillance. India has so far inoculated more than 12 million people.

The health ministry, however, said 19 of India’s three dozen states and federal territories had not reported any deaths in the past 24 hours.

It’s quite possible that we will be now seeing the pandemic transforming into smaller kinds of outbreaks, or endemicity is likely to take place, said Subhash Salunke, a former WHO official who advises Maharashtra on its COVID-19 strategy.

Hospitalisation rates have come down, especially in Maharashtra and Kerala that together account for three-quarters of India’s 168,627 active cases. The number of people hospitalised in Kerala each day due to COVID-19 averaged 830 last week, while daily new cases averaged nearly 3,500.

The hospitalisation figure for seven days in mid-September, after the Onam festival which saw increased public gatherings in Kerala, was 2,940, compared with new cases of 3,973 in the same period.

Maharashtra’s health department told Reuters only 14% of its 77,000 active patients were in oxygen or intensive-care beds. More than 80% of such beds are now unoccupied, compared with a shortage a few months ago.

Health authorities must, however, remain vigilant, especially in the big cities, the experts said

There will likely be another wave – likely will not be as big as the first wave because a lot of people got infected in the first round itself – so I think most metros should be ready for a second wave, said Ramanan Laxminarayan, founder of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in New Delhi.

Also Read: Ministry Of Home Affairs Extends Existing COVID-19 Guidelines Till March 31

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

World

26,06,51,261Cases
22,14,73,133Active
3,39,88,797Recovered
51,89,331Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 196 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 26,06,51,261 and 51,89,331 have died; 22,14,73,133 are active cases and 3,39,88,797 have recovered as on November 27, 2021 at 4:06 am.

India

3,45,63,749 8,318Cases
1,07,0193,114Active
3,39,88,797 10,967Recovered
4,67,933 465Deaths
In India, there are 3,45,63,749 confirmed cases including 4,67,933 deaths. The number of active cases is 1,07,019 and 3,39,88,797 have recovered as on November 27, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

66,33,105

12,153 699

64,80,061 665

1,40,891 34

Kerala

51,24,618 4,677

50,109 2,343

50,35,384 6,632

39,125 388

Karnataka

29,94,963 402

6,640 119

29,50,130 277

38,193 6

Tamil Nadu

27,23,991 746

8,418 24

26,79,130 759

36,443 11

Andhra Pradesh

20,72,198 184

2,163 31

20,55,603 214

14,432 1

Uttar Pradesh

17,10,368 8

91 0

16,87,368 8

22,909

West Bengal

16,13,451 710

7,847 20

15,86,165 721

19,439 9

Delhi

14,40,807 23

301 8

14,15,411 31

25,095

Odisha

10,48,228 219

2,216 5

10,37,609 222

8,403 2

Chhattisgarh

10,06,706 33

319 7

9,92,794 26

13,593

Rajasthan

9,54,715 21

174 19

9,45,586 2

8,955

Gujarat

8,27,354 27

308 7

8,16,954 34

10,092

Madhya Pradesh

7,93,097 9

103 1

7,82,466 8

10,528

Haryana

7,71,643 21

158 2

7,61,431 19

10,054

Bihar

7,26,209 5

45 1

7,16,501 6

9,663

Telangana

6,75,319 171

3,534 3

6,67,798 167

3,987 1

Assam

6,16,312 175

2,791 44

6,07,435 219

6,086

Punjab

6,03,173 41

335 21

5,86,245 18

16,593 2

Jharkhand

3,49,196 12

109 0

3,43,947 12

5,140

Uttarakhand

3,44,169 13

144 13

3,36,618 26

7,407

Jammu And Kashmir

3,36,237 174

1,719 13

3,30,048 157

4,470 4

Himachal Pradesh

2,26,859 102

827 8

2,22,190 107

3,842 3

Goa

1,78,799 34

266 11

1,75,152 22

3,381 1

Mizoram

1,33,921 359

4,227 111

1,29,206 469

488 1

Puducherry

1,28,825 31

321 3

1,26,632 28

1,872

Manipur

1,25,098 28

674 13

1,22,456 39

1,968 2

Tripura

84,771 10

80 4

83,871 6

820

Meghalaya

84,394 16

335 4

82,591 20

1,468

Chandigarh

65,438 8

48 7

64,570 1

820

Arunachal Pradesh

55,260 2

33 1

54,947 3

280

Sikkim

32,207 9

119 6

31,685 15

403

Nagaland

32,096 4

136 5

31,264 9

696

Ladakh

21,467 32

243 8

21,011 24

213

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,683

1 0

10,678

4

Lakshadweep

10,394 11

29 11

10,314

51

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,678 1

3 0

7,546 1

129

Coronavirus Outbreak: Full CoverageTesting CentresFAQs
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Highlights From The 12-Hour Telethon

Leaving No One Behind

Mental Health

Environment

Join Us