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Millions Of COVID-19 Cases Went Undetected In India, Research Paper Estimates

The research paper, written by government scientists and other experts, estimates that large numbers of COVID-19 cases in India could have gone under the radar earlier this year because testing was limited to symptomatic patients or states had varying testing rates

Millions Of COVID-19 Cases Went Undetected In India, Research Paper Estimates
Highlights
  • Infections growing faster in India than anywhere else in the world: Study
  • The study estimates that India had nearly 6.5 million cases in May
  • The study was published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research

MUMBAI: Millions of coronavirus cases may have gone undetected in India earlier this year, a research paper estimates, saying that for every confirmed case in May, there were 82 to 130 infections that were not recorded. The paper, published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, estimated that the country had nearly 6.5 million cases as early as May. Total cases stood at more than 180,000 in late May, according to the health ministry.

Infections are growing faster in India than anywhere else in the world, and the health ministry reported another record daily jump of 96,551 new cases on Friday, taking the official total case load to 4.5 million.

Also Read: Everyone Could Be A Carrier: Covering The Pandemic In Rural India

The research paper, written by government scientists and other experts and published late on Thursday, said large numbers of cases could have gone under the radar earlier this year because testing was limited to symptomatic patients or states had varying testing rates.

During the period they surveyed, India was conducting around 100,000 tests per day. It has ramped that up to a current more than 1.1 million tests a day.

To determine the range of infections, the researchers looked at the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on May 3 and May 11, and compared it with the number of individuals who displayed coronavirus antibodies during a nationwide survey conducted in May and early June.

Also Read: COVID-19 Symptomatic Patients Must Be Transferred To Hospitals At Earliest: VP Singh Badnore

The two dates were chosen so that infected individuals would likely display coronavirus antibodies, which start appearing by the end of the first week after the onset of symptoms, the paper said. The overall ratio of people who had been infected with the virus against the number of confirmed cases was then extrapolated to between 82 and 130.

India’s COVID-19 fatality rate has so far remained relatively low. The health ministry reported 1,209 new deaths on Friday, taking the overall toll to 76,271.

The research paper’s findings were in line with similar surveys conducted by large cities including New Delhi, Mumbai and Pune, which found that a much higher percentage of people were likely infected, compared to the number of confirmed cases.

India is currently testing 38,285 per million population. Brazil is testing at about double this rate and the U.S., nearly 8.5 times, Dr Rajib Dasgupta, a professor of community medicine at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told Reuters.

Also Read: Children Can Have COVID-19 Antibodies, Virus In Their System Simultaneously, States A Study

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.) 

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene.  

World

26,43,68,460Cases
22,50,84,762Active
3,40,45,666Recovered
52,38,032Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 196 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 26,43,68,460 and 52,38,032 have died; 22,50,84,762 are active cases and 3,40,45,666 have recovered as on December 3, 2021 at 1:36 pm.

India

3,46,15,757 9,216Cases
99,976 213Active
3,40,45,666 8,612Recovered
4,70,115 391Deaths
In India, there are 3,46,15,757 confirmed cases including 4,70,115 deaths. The number of active cases is 99,976 and 3,40,45,666 have recovered as on December 3, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

66,37,221 796

10,882 180

64,85,290 952

1,41,049 24

Kerala

51,51,919 4,700

45,030 252

50,66,034 4,128

40,855 320

Karnataka

29,96,833 363

6,772 169

29,51,845 191

38,216 3

Tamil Nadu

27,28,350 715

8,155 45

26,83,691 748

36,504 12

Andhra Pradesh

20,73,252 159

2,138 11

20,56,670 169

14,444 1

Uttar Pradesh

17,10,417 12

93 1

16,87,413 11

22,911

West Bengal

16,17,408 657

7,690 22

15,90,208 667

19,510 12

Delhi

14,41,190 217

307 21

14,15,785 196

25,098

Odisha

10,49,597 252

2,211 26

10,38,971 276

8,415 2

Chhattisgarh

10,06,870 37

328 12

9,92,949 25

13,593

Rajasthan

9,54,827 21

213 10

9,45,659 11

8,955

Gujarat

8,27,570 50

318 25

8,17,158 24

10,094 1

Madhya Pradesh

7,93,199 12

128 4

7,82,543 8

10,528

Haryana

7,71,760 27

178 9

7,61,528 18

10,054

Bihar

7,26,230 5

32 0

7,16,534 4

9,664 1

Telangana

6,76,376 189

3,680 50

6,68,701 137

3,995 2

Assam

6,17,163 124

2,535 77

6,08,517 198

6,111 3

Punjab

6,03,352 32

344 13

5,86,402 18

16,606 1

Jharkhand

3,49,271 15

95 1

3,44,035 13

5,141 1

Uttarakhand

3,44,325 22

182 4

3,36,735 18

7,408

Jammu And Kashmir

3,37,263 177

1,697 10

3,31,089 167

4,477

Himachal Pradesh

2,27,354 85

835 29

2,22,669 113

3,850 1

Goa

1,79,046 56

367 40

1,75,295 16

3,384

Mizoram

1,35,765 315

3,717 55

1,31,545 368

503 2

Puducherry

1,28,998 33

299 10

1,26,826 23

1,873

Manipur

1,25,269 33

663 4

1,22,627 28

1,979 1

Tripura

84,835 15

94 6

83,916 8

825 1

Meghalaya

84,534 24

296 2

82,764 25

1,474 1

Chandigarh

65,475 4

65 1

64,590 5

820

Arunachal Pradesh

55,285 6

36 1

54,969 5

280

Sikkim

32,267 15

137 10

31,727 5

403

Nagaland

32,128 3

128 5

31,302 6

698 2

Ladakh

21,642 41

306 21

21,122 20

214

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,683

0 1

10,679 1

4

Lakshadweep

10,397 1

18 8

10,328 9

51

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,686 3

7 2

7,550 1

129

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