What Does The Sero Survey 4 Tell Us About The Third Wave Of COVID-19? Experts Explain

What Does The Sero Survey 4 Tell Us About The Third Wave Of COVID-19? Experts Explain

In the third sero survey conducted in December-January, 2021, the sero-prevalence was 24.1 per cent
The fourth serosurvey shows there is a ray of hope, but there is no room for complacency: ICMR chief Dr Balram BhargavaThe fourth serosurvey shows there is a ray of hope, but there is no room for complacency: ICMR chief Dr Balram Bhargava
Highlights
  • First national survey to test for antibodies in those under the age of 18
  • 67.6% of Indians over the age of six had COVID-19 antibodies: Sero survey
  • Over 50% of 8,691 children between the age of six and 17 had antibodies

New Delhi: The government on July 20 announced the findings of the fourth national sero survey and said that two-thirds of the population – aged above six years – has SARS-CoV-2 antibodies but stressed that around 40 crore people are still vulnerable to the infection. State heterogeneity ‘indicates the possibility of future waves of infection,’ the government warned, adding that people should travel only if fully vaccinated.

Also Read: Effects Of Future Waves Of COVID-19 On Children Are Speculations: Doctor

The fourth serosurvey shows there is a ray of hope, but there is no room for complacency. We must maintain Covid-appropriate behaviour, ICMR chief Dr Balram Bhargava said.

A survey of 36,227 people, including 7,252 healthcare workers, conducted across 70 districts in 21 states in June-July indicated 67.6 per cent of Indians over the age of six had COVID-19 antibodies.

Over 50 per cent of 8,691 children between the age of six and 17 who were tested also had the antibodies.

This was the first national survey to test for antibodies in those under the age of 18, a decision taken amid widespread concern that future waves could affect children.

The sero prevalence in the age group of 6-9 years was 57.2 per cent, in age group of 10-17 years was 61.6 per cent, in 18-44 years was 66.7 per cent, in 45-60 years was 77.6 per cent and in over 60 years it was around 76.7 per cent, the government said and attributed the rise to the role of delta variant in spreading the second wave and to the vaccination cover.

In the third sero survey conducted in December-January, 2021, the sero-prevalence was 24.1 per cent. Besides, 85 per cent of the surveyed healthcare workers in the fourth round were found to have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and one-tenth were still unvaccinated.

Also Read: Study Shows Why Second Dose Of COVID-19 Vaccine Should Not Be Skipped

A third of the population did not have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which means approximately 40 crore people are still vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Those without antibodies run the risk of infection waves, Dr Bhargava said.

Dr Tanmay Mahapatra, public health expert and Epidemiologist talked to NDTV to explain how we should be looking at this sero survey and what does the seropositivity tell us about our fight against COVID right now.

These sero survey are to give us an idea about how infection has spread through the population and where do we stand currently. The presence of antibody among people actually comes from two different sources, it is either through infection or it is because of successful vaccination. The result shows that two-third of population has been infected, it means, firstly, it is still not over, there is no reason to believe that not maintaining the COVID appropriate behaviour needs to continue. Furthermore, it also tells us that vaccinations need to speed up, a large proportion of the population still needs to be vaccinated. We also need to work on vaccine hesitancy and ensure We ramp up vaccinations.

The huge jump in the sero positivity as witnessed from the third sero survey to the fourth, Dr Suneela Garg, Director, Professor, HAG Community Medicine, explains how the data can be looked at.

We have been recording infections continuously, at no point did we stop having fresh COVID-19 cases. At the peak of the second wave, we had about 4 lakh cases daily. Plus, the sero survey has also included people who have taken the vaccine. We are slow at vaccinating our population, but we have still vaccinated over 4 crore people. This explains the big jump in sero positivity.

Also Read: India’s Excess Deaths During Pandemic Likely Up To 4.9 Million: Report

Dr Mahapatra further talked about how the serosurvey doesn’t necessarily tell us about the severity of the third wave, because of the variants. This variant could potentially infect someone who even has antibodies. He explained,

To assume that, since 2 out of the three people have antibodies, the severity or the infectivity of the third wave can be lower than the previous wave is not right. That kind of speculation may be very risky because we are dealing with existing variants and strains, as well as newer mutations. We know how fast the initial variant changed and we had the Delta variant, and also Delta plus. There could be severe in the terms of disease, which has been classified into mild, moderate and severe. After that, we have the complications of those conditions, factors like oxygen dependency, pulmonary functions, among others.

As per the survey, over 50 per cent of the kids between the age group of 6-17 had antibodies as well. Dr Garg says that this shows how children may not be affected the worse in the third wave. She explains,

We have to keep in mind that for children, the infections are lower, milder in nature and subsides easily. We need to protect our children with the COVID appropriate behaviour. So, infection among children will be much less in the third wave and will likely subside fast. So, we don’t have to worry much.

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

World

19,66,15,634Cases
6,33,31,644Active
12,90,85,240Recovered
41,98,750Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 194 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 19,66,15,634 and 41,98,750 have died; 6,33,31,644 are active cases and 12,90,85,240 have recovered as on July 30, 2021 at 4:07 am.

India

3,15,72,344 44,230Cases
4,05,155 1,315Active
3,07,43,972 42,360Recovered
4,23,217 555Deaths
In India, there are 3,15,72,344 confirmed cases including 4,23,217 deaths. The number of active cases is 4,05,155 and 3,07,43,972 have recovered as on July 30, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

62,90,156 7,242

81,933 3,980

60,75,888 11,032

1,32,335 190

Kerala

33,49,365 22,064

1,55,327 5,287

31,77,453 16,649

16,585 128

Karnataka

29,01,247 2,052

23,277 685

28,41,479 1,332

36,491 35

Tamil Nadu

25,55,664 1,859

21,207 314

25,00,434 2,145

34,023 28

Andhra Pradesh

19,62,049 2,107

21,279 280

19,27,438 1,807

13,332 20

Uttar Pradesh

17,08,373 60

784 16

16,84,834 44

22,755

West Bengal

15,26,539 766

11,300 70

14,97,116 822

18,123 14

Delhi

14,36,144 51

554 19

14,10,541 70

25,049

Chhattisgarh

10,01,781 130

2,086 140

9,86,175 270

13,520

Odisha

9,74,132 1,615

15,276 489

9,53,088 2,039

5,768 65

Rajasthan

9,53,622 17

259 9

9,44,410 26

8,953

Gujarat

8,24,829 27

268 6

8,14,485 33

10,076

Madhya Pradesh

7,91,796 18

130 0

7,81,153 18

10,513

Haryana

7,69,858 30

712 10

7,59,516 17

9,630 3

Bihar

7,24,719 46

481 1

7,14,596 42

9,642 3

Telangana

6,43,716 623

9,188 126

6,30,732 746

3,796 3

Punjab

5,99,005 58

553 6

5,82,162 60

16,290 4

Assam

5,64,030 1,299

14,114 385

5,44,695 1,664

5,221 20

Jharkhand

3,47,105 56

259 22

3,41,720 34

5,126

Uttarakhand

3,41,982 48

669 3

3,33,952 51

7,361

Jammu And Kashmir

3,21,207 181

1,144 5

3,15,686 175

4,377 1

Himachal Pradesh

2,05,728 229

1,098 145

2,01,110 84

3,520

Goa

1,70,900 90

1,077 5

1,66,679 93

3,144 2

Puducherry

1,20,725 98

972 49

1,17,961 49

1,792

Manipur

96,824 1,000

10,895 27

84,408 1,016

1,521 11

Tripura

78,059 271

3,640 221

73,665 488

754 4

Meghalaya

63,745 731

5,750 294

56,933 423

1,062 14

Chandigarh

61,948 5

37 1

61,102 4

809

Arunachal Pradesh

47,477 335

4,252 49

43,000 383

225 1

Mizoram

37,171 764

11,862 252

25,168 511

141 1

Nagaland

27,653 67

1,299 51

25,798 114

556 4

Sikkim

26,132 276

3,297 180

22,498 92

337 4

Ladakh

20,324 4

60 4

20,057 8

207

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,643 1

36 5

10,603 6

4

Lakshadweep

10,162 7

70 6

10,042 13

50

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,534 3

10 3

7,395

129

Coronavirus Outbreak: Full CoverageTesting CentresFAQs

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may also like

COVID-19 Infections Rise, Delta Variant Spreads To 132 Countries: WHO

According to WHO’s data, this rise was followed by Brazil – 324,334 new cases; Indonesia – 289,029 new cases; the United Kingdom – 282,920 new cases; and India – 265,836 new cases