New Delhi: An artificial intelligence (AI) model can predict which variants of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 virus will likely bring about fresh waves of the infection, a new research has found. The model can detect around 73 per cent of the variants in each country that will cause at least 1,000 cases per 10 lakh people in the three months, following an observation period of one week, and over 80 per cent after two weeks, researchers said. The team from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US, and The Hebrew University-Hadassah Medical School, Israel, analysed 9 SARS-CoV-2 million genetic sequences across 30 countries, collected by the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID). This was combined with data on vaccination rates, infection rates, and other factors.
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The initiative “promotes the rapid sharing of data from priority pathogens including influenza, hCoV-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), hMpxV as well as arboviruses including chikungunya, dengue and zika,” according to GISAID’s website.
The team used the patterns emerging from the analysis in building a risk assessment model based on machine-learning, an AI algorithm that can learn from past data and make predictions. Their study is published in the journal PNAS Nexus.
The researchers found that among the factors influencing a variant’s infectiousness, the strongest predictors were the early trajectory of the infections it caused, its spike mutations, and how different its mutations were from those of the most dominant variant during the observation period.
The authors wrote in their study,
These results support the hypothesis that the infectious new variants are those that acquire enough mutations which either can lead to reinfections or enable targeting new subgroups of the population that were naturally immune to previous variants.
They said that the current models predicting the dynamics and trends of viral transmission do not predict variant-specific spread.
This study leverages variant-specific genetic data together with epidemiological information to provide improved early signals and predict the future spread of newly detected variants, the authors said in their study.
They said that the novel modelling approach could potentially be extended to other respiratory viruses such as Influenza, Avian Flu viruses, or other Corona viruses, and predict the future course of other infectious diseases as well.
Future research could explore how genetic and biological understanding of variant’s infectiousness and spread can be translated into predictive factors, that can be evaluated based on available data, the team said.
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(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
NDTV – Dettol have been working towards a clean and healthy India since 2014 via the Banega Swachh India initiative, which in its Season 10 is helmed by Campaign Ambassador Ayushmann Khurrana. The campaign aims to highlight the inter-dependency of humans and the environment, and of humans on one another with the focus on One Health, One Planet, One Future – Leaving No One Behind. It stresses on the need to take care of, and consider, everyone’s health in India – especially vulnerable communities – the LGBTQ population, indigenous people, India’s different tribes, ethnic and linguistic minorities, people with disabilities, migrants, geographically remote populations, gender and sexual minorities. In a world post COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign will continue to raise awareness on the same along with focussing on the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children, fight malnutrition, mental well-being, self-care, science and health, adolescent health & gender awareness. Along with the health of people, the campaign has realised the need to also take care of the health of the eco-system. Our environment is fragile due to human activity, which is not only over-exploiting available resources, but also generating immense pollution as a result of using and extracting those resources. The imbalance has also led to immense biodiversity loss that has caused one of the biggest threats to human survival – climate change. It has now been described as a “code red for humanity.” The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollution, waste management, plastic ban, manual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene. Banega Swasth India will also be taking forward the dream of Swasth Bharat, the campaign feels that only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and the country can become a Swasth or healthy India.
