New Delhi: The world is headed for a temperature rise of around 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century even if countries fully implement their nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) or action plans to reduce emission of planet-warming gases, according to a new report released by the United Nations on Monday (November 20). Countries need to cut emissions by 28 per cent to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius and by 42 per cent to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal, United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2023, titled “Broken Record,” said.
The report released ahead of the 28th session of the annual UN climate talks or COP28 in Dubai said global emissions rose by 1.2 per cent in 2021-2022. The report read,
Fully implementing efforts implied by unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9 degrees Celsius. Conditional NDCs fully implemented would lead to temperatures not exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The report said countries have made progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the signing of the Paris Agreement as the 2016 edition of the report had a projected warming of up to 3.4 degrees Celsius in a business-as-usual scenario.
Despite the progress, the world is very far from limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid extreme, destructive and likely irreversible effects of climate change, the UN said.
The world is already experiencing unprecedented heat, floods, wildfires, cyclones, and droughts at just 1.1 degrees of global warming.
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Until the beginning of October, 86 days in this year were recorded with temperatures over 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN, said,
We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition.
The report calls for all nations to deliver economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations, with a focus on energy transition.
The coal, oil and gas extracted over the lifetime of producing and the planned mines and fields would emit more than three-and-a-half times the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and almost the entire budget available for 2 degrees Celsius, the report said.
Climate science defines carbon budget as the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted for a given level of global warming (1.5 degrees Celsius in this case).
Developed countries have already consumed more than 80 per cent of the global carbon budget, leaving countries like India with very little carbon space for the future. It said,
Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions — particularly high-income and high-emitting countries among the G20 — will need to take more ambitious and rapid action and provide financial and technical support to developing nations. As low- and middle-income countries already account for more than two-thirds of global GHG emissions, meeting development needs with low-emissions growth is a priority in such nations — such as addressing energy demand patterns and prioritising clean energy supply chains.
Harjeet Singh, the head of global political strategy at the New Delhi-based Climate Action Network International, said the world is on thin ice.
The stark reality is that the projected emissions from coal, oil and gas extraction are on track to exceed the carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by more than three-and-a-half times.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
NDTV – Dettol have been working towards a clean and healthy India since 2014 via the Banega Swachh India initiative, which in its Season 10 is helmed by Campaign Ambassador Ayushmann Khurrana. The campaign aims to highlight the inter-dependency of humans and the environment, and of humans on one another with the focus on One Health, One Planet, One Future – Leaving No One Behind. It stresses on the need to take care of, and consider, everyone’s health in India – especially vulnerable communities – the LGBTQ population, indigenous people, India’s different tribes, ethnic and linguistic minorities, people with disabilities, migrants, geographically remote populations, gender and sexual minorities. In a world post COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign will continue to raise awareness on the same along with focussing on the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children, fight malnutrition, mental well-being, self-care, science and health, adolescent health & gender awareness. Along with the health of people, the campaign has realised the need to also take care of the health of the eco-system. Our environment is fragile due to human activity, which is not only over-exploiting available resources, but also generating immense pollution as a result of using and extracting those resources. The imbalance has also led to immense biodiversity loss that has caused one of the biggest threats to human survival – climate change. It has now been described as a “code red for humanity.” The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollution, waste management, plastic ban, manual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene. Banega Swasth India will also be taking forward the dream of Swasth Bharat, the campaign feels that only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and the country can become a Swasth or healthy India.
