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Big New COVID Wave Unlikely But Too Early To Say India In Endemic Stage: Scientists

A day after India reached the milestone of 100 crore Covid vaccine doses, virologist Shahid Jameel said vaccination rates have improved significantly but more needs to be done

Big New COVID Wave Unlikely But Too Early To Say India In Endemic Stage: Scientists

New Delhi: India is unlikely to see a Covid wave like the devastating second one unless there is a new immune escaping variant but the lower number of cases does not necessarily mean the pandemic is now endemic, several experts said on Friday. Giving hope and also injecting a note of caution as the festive season peaks with Diwali just days ahead, they said a dipping Covid graph is only part of the picture and pointed to factors such as the mortality rate, the need for a larger vaccination cover and examples of countries such as UK where numbers are again rising.

A day after India reached the milestone of 100 crore Covid vaccine doses, virologist Shahid Jameel said vaccination rates have improved significantly but more needs to be done.

I am not sure we are in the endemic state yet… As we celebrate this (100 crore) landmark, there is still some distance to go. We are going towards endemicity, but are not there yet, Jameel, a visiting professor at Ashoka University in Haryana, told PTI in an email interview.

Also Read: Decision On Vaccination Of Children To Be Based On Scientific Rationale: Dr V K Paul

He also noted that daily confirmed COVID cases in India have been decreasing slowly over the past three months from about 40,000 per day to about 15,000 per day now. According to Union Health Ministry data on Friday, there were 15,786 new COVID-19 cases, marking 28 straight days of a daily rise of less than 30,000.

The death toll climbed to 4,53,042 with 231 deaths. Jameel, one of India’s best known virologists, also pointed out that the mortality rate in the country remains steady at about 1.2 per cent.

This tells me that the vaccine coverage in India still needs to increase, he added.

A disease is described as endemic when it continues to be present within a given geographical area but its impact is manageable.

There have been some confused claims about this recently… Low cases for some time do not necessarily mean endemicity. It is possible that endemicity is close in some parts of the country, but the data needed to confirm this is not easily available,” added Murad Banaji, senior lecturer in mathematics at UK’s Middlesex University who has been closely tracking India’s Covid graph and has done several model studies. For example, we do not know how many current infections are occurring amongst people who have been vaccinated or infected before, Prof Banaji told PTI.

Also Read: Mix-and-match Vaccines Highly Effective Against COVID-19: Lancet Study

He added that nobody knows what an “endemic future” would look like or what levels of Covid to expect. What is likely is that measures to control transmission will still be needed for some years to come. Epidemiologist Ramanan Laxminaryan concurred, saying there can be periodic flare-ups even with an endemic disease as is being observed in the UK.

I believe we should wait for another two months before determining whether COVID-19 poses a significant future threat to the country, Laxminarayan, director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in Washington, told PTI in an email interview.

In the UK, Jameel noted, the caseload has increased from about 30,000 cases per day in mid-September to almost 50,000 cases per day. However, the mortality rate has fallen from 2 per cent in mid-July to about 0.2 per cent now. In the US, after reaching almost 200,000 cases per day in early September, the cases are now down to about 80,000 per day. However, mortality rate remains the same as earlier in the year.

The experts said India will continue to experience local increases in Covid cases even though it is unlikely to see another overwhelming surge in infections like it did during the second wave when the country’s healthcare system was overwhelmed and thousands died. Banaji said there have been a large number of recent infections, and vaccination has been proceeding at a reasonable pace.

…These both reduce the likelihood of a major new wave in the next few months, he explained. New variants could potentially still pose a challenge. Any new variant which spreads much more easily, especially amongst people who are vaccinated or have been previously infected, could lead to new surges.

Hopefully, he added, India will not see a wave on the scale of April-June 2021 ever.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol have been working towards a clean and healthy India since 2014 via the Banega Swachh India initiative, which is helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. The campaign aims to highlight the inter-dependency of humans and the environment, and of humans on one another with the focus on One Health, One Planet, One Future – Leaving No One Behind. It stresses on the need to take care of, and consider, everyone’s health in India – especially vulnerable communities – the LGBTQ populationindigenous people, India’s different tribes, ethnic and linguistic minorities, people with disabilities, migrants, geographically remote populations, gender and sexual minorities. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign will continue to raise awareness on the same along with focussing on the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children, fight malnutrition, mental wellbeing, self care, science and health, adolescent health & gender awareness. Along with the health of people, the campaign has realised the need to also take care of the health of the eco-system. Our environment is fragile due to human activity, which is not only over-exploiting available resources, but also generating immense pollution as a result of using and extracting those resources. The imbalance has also led to immense biodiversity loss that has caused one of the biggest threats to human survival – climate change. It has now been described as a “code red for humanity.” The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene. Banega Swasth India will also be taking forward the dream of Swasth Bharat, the campaign feels that only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and the country can become a Swasth or healthy India.

World

26,27,61,966Cases
22,35,18,265Active
3,40,28,506Recovered
52,15,195Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 196 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 26,27,61,966 and 52,15,195 have died; 22,35,18,265 are active cases and 3,40,28,506 have recovered as on December 1, 2021 at 3:56 am.

India

3,45,96,776 8,954Cases
99,0231,520Active
3,40,28,506 10,207Recovered
4,69,247 267Deaths
In India, there are 3,45,96,776 confirmed cases including 4,69,247 deaths. The number of active cases is 99,023 and 3,40,28,506 have recovered as on December 1, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

66,35,658 678

11,226 299

64,83,435 942

1,40,997 35

Kerala

51,41,814 4,723

44,314 824

50,57,368 5,370

40,132 177

Karnataka

29,96,148 291

6,445 462

29,51,492 745

38,211 8

Tamil Nadu

27,26,917 720

8,244 47

26,82,192 758

36,481 9

Andhra Pradesh

20,72,909 184

2,149 47

20,56,318 134

14,442 3

Uttar Pradesh

17,10,399 12

89 3

16,87,399 8

22,911 1

West Bengal

16,16,083 705

7,731 2

15,88,866 694

19,486 13

Delhi

14,40,934 34

287 2

14,15,549 32

25,098

Odisha

10,49,108 228

2,188 23

10,38,509 203

8,411 2

Chhattisgarh

10,06,813 34

318 0

9,92,902 34

13,593

Rajasthan

9,54,785 15

193 6

9,45,637 9

8,955

Gujarat

8,27,475 40

275 13

8,17,108 27

10,092

Madhya Pradesh

7,93,170 20

119 7

7,82,523 27

10,528

Haryana

7,71,709 17

163 2

7,61,492 19

10,054

Bihar

7,26,223 4

36 3

7,16,524 7

9,663

Telangana

6,75,994 196

3,591 10

6,68,411 184

3,992 2

Assam

6,16,852 144

2,625 30

6,08,124 109

6,103 5

Punjab

6,03,279 21

325 4

5,86,352 22

16,602 3

Jharkhand

3,49,244 12

98 3

3,44,006 9

5,140

Uttarakhand

3,44,255 28

141 9

3,36,706 19

7,408

Jammu And Kashmir

3,36,852 171

1,625 1

3,30,751 172

4,476

Himachal Pradesh

2,27,195 102

834 10

2,22,513 91

3,848 1

Goa

1,78,928 38

284 8

1,75,260 30

3,384

Mizoram

1,35,175 365

3,751 54

1,30,927 415

497 4

Puducherry

1,28,924 31

284 12

1,26,768 43

1,872

Manipur

1,25,205 36

649 6

1,22,579 40

1,977 2

Tripura

84,805 14

81 3

83,900 10

824 1

Meghalaya

84,480 19

294 9

82,713 9

1,473 1

Chandigarh

65,465 9

65 7

64,580 2

820

Arunachal Pradesh

55,276 3

35 0

54,961 3

280

Sikkim

32,242 9

124 3

31,715 6

403

Nagaland

32,122 13

133 7

31,293 20

696

Ladakh

21,578 38

276 26

21,088 12

214

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,683

1 0

10,678

4

Lakshadweep

10,394

24 0

10,319

51

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,683

6 2

7,548 2

129

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