COVID-19 Second Wave In India May Peak By Mid-April, Say Scientists

COVID-19 Second Wave In India May Peak By Mid-April, Say Scientists

For the last several days, we have found that there is a reasonable chance that COVID-19 cases in India could peak sometime between 15-20 April, said experts
Coronavirus Outbreak, News
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COVID-19 Second Wave In India May Peak By Mid-April, Say ScientistsDuring the first wave of COVID-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, named SUTRA, predicted that the initial surge of infections in August would peak by September and lower in February 2021
Highlights
  • India has been seeing a spike in cases since almost two months
  • There are currently over 6.14 active cases in the country
  • On Friday, India recorded 81,466 new infections in a span of 24 hours

New Delhi: Scientists have predicted using a mathematical model that the ongoing second-wave of COVID-19 pandemic across the country could peak by mid-April, following which the infections may see a steep decline by the end of May. During the first wave of COVID-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, named SUTRA, predicted that the initial surge of infections in August would peak by September and lower in February 2021.

Also Read: Positivity Rate Of Cases In Last Two Weeks Jumps From 0.93 Per Cent To Over 3.5 Per Cent

Scientists, including Manindra Agrawal from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, applied the model to predict the trajectory of the current surge in infections and found that the number of daily new infections is likely to peak in mid-April for this ongoing pandemic wave. He said,

For the last several days, we have found that there is a reasonable chance that the cases in India could peak sometime between 15-20 April. It is a sharp slope, but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction. There is some uncertainty in predicting the peak value of daily new infections because of the sharp rise. Currently, it is coming to 1 lakh infections per day, but this can go up or down. But the timing remains the same between April 15-20.

The scientists predict that in the current wave, the first state to peak could be Punjab in a few days, followed by Maharashtra. However, the IIT Kanpur professor added that the model’s prediction of the new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data.

Even a little bit of change each day causes the peak numbers to change by several thousand numbers. But the location of the peak has remained on mid-April, he added.

Independent calculations made by scientists, including Gautam Menon from Ashoka University in Haryana, have also predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

However, Mr. Menon cautioned that such projections of COVID-19 cases should really be trusted only in the short term.

Also Read: India ‘Fully Supports’ WHO’s Call For China To Share Comprehensive Data On The Origins Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

Any excessively precise prediction, of a peak within just a 5-day window, would ignore the many uncertainties associated with the inputs to any such calculation, Mr. Menon, who was not involved in the SUTRA modelling, told PTI.

Mr. Agrawal noted that the model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic.

The first is called Beta, or contact rate, which measures how many people an infected person infects per day. It is related to the R-naught value, which is the number of people an infected person spreads the virus to over the course of their infection, Mr. Agrawal explained.

The other two parameters, he explained are ‘Reach’, which is a measure of exposure level of the population to the pandemic, and ‘Epsilon’ which is the ratio of detected and undetected cases.

The reason we had to introduce ‘Reach’ is that unlike earlier pandemics which start at a location and suddenly spread fast across a place, in COVID, the spread of the pandemic has been slower due to the many protective measures in place, Mr. Agrawal explained.

The mathematician said ‘Epsilon’ helps factor in the number of asymptomatic infections across the country.

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Since the detected cases are quarantined, we assume they no longer contribute to new infections. So a growing number of daily new cases, reflect larger undetected infections. By measuring the number of new cases each day, we try to estimate the undetected and asymptomatic infections, Mr.Agrawal explained.

He added that the model relies on inputs from daily reported new infections, based on which the value of the three main parameters are inferred.

We learn everything from the daily-infections data. The beta value across India has gone up by 50 per cent in March, which indicates that a combination of factors — people becoming more relaxed, and more infectious variants going around. But precisely what reason this could be is something biologists have to say, the scientist noted.

While the model did not previously predict a second-wave in India, he said it could have been due to a change in the parameters sometime between February and March 2021.

So clearly during this time some parameters had changed. So we had to wait for some time to collect new data and see how the parameters had changed, which we now know, Mr. Agrawal said.

On Friday, India recorded 81,466 new infections in a span of 24 hours — the highest single-day rise in cases since October 2, 2020 — taking the COVID-19 tally of cases to 1,23,03,131, according to the Union Health Ministry data.

Also Read: Coronavirus Pandemic: Bollywood Celebrities Who Have Tested Positive For COVID-19

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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World

19,66,15,634Cases
6,33,31,644Active
12,90,85,240Recovered
41,98,750Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 194 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 19,66,15,634 and 41,98,750 have died; 6,33,31,644 are active cases and 12,90,85,240 have recovered as on July 30, 2021 at 4:07 am.

India

3,15,72,344 44,230Cases
4,05,155 1,315Active
3,07,43,972 42,360Recovered
4,23,217 555Deaths
In India, there are 3,15,72,344 confirmed cases including 4,23,217 deaths. The number of active cases is 4,05,155 and 3,07,43,972 have recovered as on July 30, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

62,90,156 7,242

81,933 3,980

60,75,888 11,032

1,32,335 190

Kerala

33,49,365 22,064

1,55,327 5,287

31,77,453 16,649

16,585 128

Karnataka

29,01,247 2,052

23,277 685

28,41,479 1,332

36,491 35

Tamil Nadu

25,55,664 1,859

21,207 314

25,00,434 2,145

34,023 28

Andhra Pradesh

19,62,049 2,107

21,279 280

19,27,438 1,807

13,332 20

Uttar Pradesh

17,08,373 60

784 16

16,84,834 44

22,755

West Bengal

15,26,539 766

11,300 70

14,97,116 822

18,123 14

Delhi

14,36,144 51

554 19

14,10,541 70

25,049

Chhattisgarh

10,01,781 130

2,086 140

9,86,175 270

13,520

Odisha

9,74,132 1,615

15,276 489

9,53,088 2,039

5,768 65

Rajasthan

9,53,622 17

259 9

9,44,410 26

8,953

Gujarat

8,24,829 27

268 6

8,14,485 33

10,076

Madhya Pradesh

7,91,796 18

130 0

7,81,153 18

10,513

Haryana

7,69,858 30

712 10

7,59,516 17

9,630 3

Bihar

7,24,719 46

481 1

7,14,596 42

9,642 3

Telangana

6,43,716 623

9,188 126

6,30,732 746

3,796 3

Punjab

5,99,005 58

553 6

5,82,162 60

16,290 4

Assam

5,64,030 1,299

14,114 385

5,44,695 1,664

5,221 20

Jharkhand

3,47,105 56

259 22

3,41,720 34

5,126

Uttarakhand

3,41,982 48

669 3

3,33,952 51

7,361

Jammu And Kashmir

3,21,207 181

1,144 5

3,15,686 175

4,377 1

Himachal Pradesh

2,05,728 229

1,098 145

2,01,110 84

3,520

Goa

1,70,900 90

1,077 5

1,66,679 93

3,144 2

Puducherry

1,20,725 98

972 49

1,17,961 49

1,792

Manipur

96,824 1,000

10,895 27

84,408 1,016

1,521 11

Tripura

78,059 271

3,640 221

73,665 488

754 4

Meghalaya

63,745 731

5,750 294

56,933 423

1,062 14

Chandigarh

61,948 5

37 1

61,102 4

809

Arunachal Pradesh

47,477 335

4,252 49

43,000 383

225 1

Mizoram

37,171 764

11,862 252

25,168 511

141 1

Nagaland

27,653 67

1,299 51

25,798 114

556 4

Sikkim

26,132 276

3,297 180

22,498 92

337 4

Ladakh

20,324 4

60 4

20,057 8

207

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,643 1

36 5

10,603 6

4

Lakshadweep

10,162 7

70 6

10,042 13

50

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,534 3

10 3

7,395

129

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