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COVID-19 Second Wave In India May Peak By Mid-April, Say Scientists

For the last several days, we have found that there is a reasonable chance that COVID-19 cases in India could peak sometime between 15-20 April, said experts

COVID-19 Second Wave In India May Peak By Mid-April, Say Scientists
Highlights
  • India has been seeing a spike in cases since almost two months
  • There are currently over 6.14 active cases in the country
  • On Friday, India recorded 81,466 new infections in a span of 24 hours

New Delhi: Scientists have predicted using a mathematical model that the ongoing second-wave of COVID-19 pandemic across the country could peak by mid-April, following which the infections may see a steep decline by the end of May. During the first wave of COVID-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, named SUTRA, predicted that the initial surge of infections in August would peak by September and lower in February 2021.

Also Read: Positivity Rate Of Cases In Last Two Weeks Jumps From 0.93 Per Cent To Over 3.5 Per Cent

Scientists, including Manindra Agrawal from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, applied the model to predict the trajectory of the current surge in infections and found that the number of daily new infections is likely to peak in mid-April for this ongoing pandemic wave. He said,

For the last several days, we have found that there is a reasonable chance that the cases in India could peak sometime between 15-20 April. It is a sharp slope, but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction. There is some uncertainty in predicting the peak value of daily new infections because of the sharp rise. Currently, it is coming to 1 lakh infections per day, but this can go up or down. But the timing remains the same between April 15-20.

The scientists predict that in the current wave, the first state to peak could be Punjab in a few days, followed by Maharashtra. However, the IIT Kanpur professor added that the model’s prediction of the new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data.

Even a little bit of change each day causes the peak numbers to change by several thousand numbers. But the location of the peak has remained on mid-April, he added.

Independent calculations made by scientists, including Gautam Menon from Ashoka University in Haryana, have also predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.

However, Mr. Menon cautioned that such projections of COVID-19 cases should really be trusted only in the short term.

Also Read: India ‘Fully Supports’ WHO’s Call For China To Share Comprehensive Data On The Origins Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

Any excessively precise prediction, of a peak within just a 5-day window, would ignore the many uncertainties associated with the inputs to any such calculation, Mr. Menon, who was not involved in the SUTRA modelling, told PTI.

Mr. Agrawal noted that the model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic.

The first is called Beta, or contact rate, which measures how many people an infected person infects per day. It is related to the R-naught value, which is the number of people an infected person spreads the virus to over the course of their infection, Mr. Agrawal explained.

The other two parameters, he explained are ‘Reach’, which is a measure of exposure level of the population to the pandemic, and ‘Epsilon’ which is the ratio of detected and undetected cases.

The reason we had to introduce ‘Reach’ is that unlike earlier pandemics which start at a location and suddenly spread fast across a place, in COVID, the spread of the pandemic has been slower due to the many protective measures in place, Mr. Agrawal explained.

The mathematician said ‘Epsilon’ helps factor in the number of asymptomatic infections across the country.

Also Read: In Pictures: Actors Who Have Received COVID-19 Vaccination

Since the detected cases are quarantined, we assume they no longer contribute to new infections. So a growing number of daily new cases, reflect larger undetected infections. By measuring the number of new cases each day, we try to estimate the undetected and asymptomatic infections, Mr.Agrawal explained.

He added that the model relies on inputs from daily reported new infections, based on which the value of the three main parameters are inferred.

We learn everything from the daily-infections data. The beta value across India has gone up by 50 per cent in March, which indicates that a combination of factors — people becoming more relaxed, and more infectious variants going around. But precisely what reason this could be is something biologists have to say, the scientist noted.

While the model did not previously predict a second-wave in India, he said it could have been due to a change in the parameters sometime between February and March 2021.

So clearly during this time some parameters had changed. So we had to wait for some time to collect new data and see how the parameters had changed, which we now know, Mr. Agrawal said.

On Friday, India recorded 81,466 new infections in a span of 24 hours — the highest single-day rise in cases since October 2, 2020 — taking the COVID-19 tally of cases to 1,23,03,131, according to the Union Health Ministry data.

Also Read: Coronavirus Pandemic: Bollywood Celebrities Who Have Tested Positive For COVID-19

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

World

26,78,24,983Cases
22,84,48,447Active
3,40,97,388Recovered
52,79,148Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 196 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 26,78,24,983 and 52,79,148 have died; 22,84,48,447 are active cases and 3,40,97,388 have recovered as on December 9, 2021 at 3:47 am.

India

3,46,66,241 9,419Cases
94,742 1,009Active
3,40,97,388 8,251Recovered
4,74,111 159Deaths
In India, there are 3,46,66,241 confirmed cases including 4,74,111 deaths. The number of active cases is 94,742 and 3,40,97,388 have recovered as on December 9, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
Maharashtra

66,40,888 893

9,964 157

64,89,720 1,040

1,41,204 10

Kerala

51,78,892 5,038

41,615 887

50,95,263 4,039

42,014 112

Karnataka

29,99,098 399

7,284 155

29,53,565 238

38,249 6

Tamil Nadu

27,32,648 703

7,946 36

26,88,142 728

36,560 11

Andhra Pradesh

20,74,217 181

2,011 3

20,57,749 176

14,457 2

Uttar Pradesh

17,10,502 10

139 7

16,87,452 3

22,911

West Bengal

16,20,803 574

7,576 0

15,93,659 568

19,568 6

Delhi

14,41,514 65

404 28

14,16,010 36

25,100 1

Odisha

10,50,760 255

1,931 11

10,40,403 264

8,426 2

Chhattisgarh

10,07,075 37

341 9

9,93,140 27

13,594 1

Rajasthan

9,54,984 40

236 16

9,45,792 24

8,956

Gujarat

8,27,873 67

417 45

8,17,361 22

10,095

Madhya Pradesh

7,93,288 14

140 1

7,82,619 13

10,529

Haryana

7,71,904 29

223 15

7,61,626 14

10,055

Bihar

7,26,259 9

36 6

7,14,133 3

12,090

Telangana

6,77,546 205

3,871 19

6,69,673 185

4,002 1

Assam

6,18,042 134

2,541 24

6,09,374 158

6,127

Punjab

6,03,578 22

350 0

5,86,614 20

16,614 2

Jharkhand

3,49,383 16

129 7

3,44,113 23

5,141

Uttarakhand

3,44,402 17

192 3

3,36,799 14

7,411

Jammu And Kashmir

3,38,198 151

1,639 38

3,32,070 111

4,489 2

Himachal Pradesh

2,27,753 69

722 14

2,23,174 81

3,857 2

Goa

1,79,307 65

441 37

1,75,478 28

3,388

Mizoram

1,37,377 320

3,049 10

1,33,819 309

509 1

Puducherry

1,29,128 23

230 1

1,27,022 22

1,876

Manipur

1,25,429 23

325 5

1,23,119 28

1,985

Tripura

84,888 14

94 11

83,968 3

826

Meghalaya

84,631 12

240 11

82,916 23

1,475

Chandigarh

65,515 7

67 2

64,628 5

820

Arunachal Pradesh

55,298 3

29 2

54,989 5

280

Sikkim

32,390 8

200 2

31,785 6

405

Nagaland

32,143 1

116 2

31,328 3

699

Ladakh

21,749 14

230 17

21,304 31

215

Dadra And Nagar Haveli

10,683

0 0

10,679

4

Lakshadweep

10,405

11 0

10,343

51

Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,691 1

3 0

7,559 1

129

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