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Current Surge Of Coronavirus May See A Decline In Middle To End Of May: Vaccinologist Gagandeep Kang

According to Vaccinologist Gagandeep Kang, there could be one or two more peaks of coronavirus cases but they may not be as bad as the current one

Current Surge Of Virus May See A Decline In Middle To End Of May: Vaccinologist Gagandeep Kang
Highlights
  • There is a need to ramp the COVID-19 inoculation drive: Dr Kang
  • Dr Kang expressed concern over the declining number of coronavirus tests
  • Coronavirus will become seasonal, like a really bad flu virus: Dr Kang

New Delhi: The current surge in coronavirus cases may go down by the middle to the end of May, noted vaccinologist Gagandeep Kang has said. She said there could be one or two more peaks of coronavirus cases but they may not be as bad as the current one. Right now it’s doing a “world through” in areas it did not do last year, in the middle class population, in the rural areas and there is going to be “very little fuel” for the virus to continue to go through, she said.

Also Read: PM Modi Reviews COVID-19 Situation, Stresses States Should Not Let COVID Vaccination Speed Go Down

Allaying fears about vaccines, she said they are efficacious and emphasised the need to ramp the inoculation drive. She also expressed concern over the declining number of coronavirus tests.

The proportion of cases is actually much larger than the tests reveal but in absolute numbers in “what we track and count”, Dr. Kang said.

Best case estimates from a number of models are somewhere between the middle and the end of the month. Some models have it going into early June but based on what we are seeing, right now middle to end of May is a reasonable estimate, she said in response to a question in a webinar organised by the Indian Women Press Corps.

On forecasting waves of virus, she said one can definitely use the characteristics of the strain, characteristics of a pandemic in a particular place to predict what is going to happen in that location if the data is available at that level for mathematical modelling. She said there are few infectious disease modellers in the country.

Also Read: Research Data Doesn’t Establish N440K As ‘Variant Of Interest’ And ‘Very Virulent’: Andhra COVID Command Centre Chief

And all the ones that exist will tell you that their models are as good as the data they have and the models are accurate up to two weeks. You cannot expect a prediction for three months or six months or two years from now as yet. We don’t know enough about the virus. We don’t know enough about how it is going to, she said.

On being asked about the prospects of coronavirus, she said this will become like “a really bad flu virus”.

This will become seasonal, like a really bad flu virus. It will be something like becoming more seasonal, that will settle down, that people will acquire a certain level of immunity because of repeated immunity and vaccinations, she said.

Dr Kang added that people will acquire a certain level of immunity because of repeated infections and vaccinations.

It may be imperfect in immunity, so we may need boosters if we keep having enough virus replications to have new mutants that have immune escape, but I am pretty sure that we are not going to have in this situation that we are in today too many more times. At least, not with this virus, she said.

Also Read: Third Wave Of COVID-19 Pandemic ‘Inevitable’: Government

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

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