New Delhi: According to a study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), one COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if he or she doesn’t follow lockdown, social distancing, said Health ministry during a daily press briefing on Tuesday. Speaking to reporters, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Health Ministry, said, “If one person does not follow lockdown and social distancing norms, he can infect 406 people in 30 days. However, if the social exposure is reduced by 75 per cent, then the same infected person can spread it to just 2.5 people.”
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He added,
It is, therefore, our appeal to all of you to follow the lockdown and social distancing measures. We should understand that this is a very important intervention in the management of COVID-19.
He further went on to say that Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan was right in stating that “social distancing is social vaccine” in the management of the infection.
Mr. Aggarwal said that R naught (used to measure how contagious an infectious disease is) for COVID-19 is between 1 to 4. R0 for COVID-19 stood at 2.5.
According to the Health Ministry log, 354 new cases of COVID-19 and eight deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours. The total count of coronavirus positive cases in the country has climbed to 4,421. The total number of cases also includes 326 cured patients
“A total of 4,421 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in India till now as 354 new cases were reported since yesterday. A total of 117 deaths have been reported so far including 8 deaths reported since yesterday,” Mr. Aggarwal was quoted as saying by ANI.
On the basis of this assumption, researchers found out that if a single coronavirus patient without self-isolation or quarantine, would increase the number of COVID-19 cases to 406 people in one month.
The number cuts down to 2.5 if social distancing is followed.
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