New Delhi: On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete lockdown in India for 21 days (starting March 25) due to the spread of the highly contagious virus – COVID-19 that started last December from the Chinese city of Wuhan and soon spread to over 180 countries (according to Johns Hopkins University, national public health agencies). Since then India has come to a standstill as 1.3 billion people practice social distancing in the hope to break the chain of the infection in the country. The novel Coronavirus has spread to many parts of the country and as of April 1, according to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India confirmed 1637 cases, of which, 38 people have lost their lives due to COVID-19.
Explaining the impact of the virus and why lockdown at this crucial time has become the only survival option, an expert from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) adds,
Think of your health care system as one car, which can only accommodate a certain number of people at once. What happens, if there is an emergency and you want to accommodate 100 people in one car, you won’t be able to do it, as a result, people will have to wait for their chance or their turn to ride. Similarly, if COVID-19 spreads and infect more people at once there will be a shortage of hospital beds, hospital facilities for example ventilators and other equipment which are needed. To avoid this surge of coronavirus cases the important thing is to break the chain of infection and flatten down the curve, which can only happen if public practice social-distancing and isolation from others.
Also Read: Coronavirus Outbreak: A Complete List Of Places In India Where You Can Get Tested For COVID-19
Not just India, many other countries too are under lockdown. The worst-affected in the world – Italy that reported 10,779 deaths to date has also confirmed the positive impact of lockdown. According to Italian government adviser Luca Richeldi, the number of new people being taken into intensive care with the disease each day is dropping, courtesy Italy’s 3-week lockdown.
In China, which was earlier the epicentre of the virus, according to a paper by researchers in China, the United States and Britain, published in the journal Science, the lockdown in China may have prevented more than 700,000 new cases by delaying the spread of the virus.
As India goes through its 21-day lockdown, we speak to the experts to know about what “Flattening The Curve” being used in the context of this pandemic means and the role lockdowns play in the process.
Also Read: Why Does Coronavirus Spread So Easily? Experts Explain
What is Flattening The Curve?
Explaining what “Flattening the curve example of coronavirus” means, a spokesperson from Indian Council Of Medical Research said,
In Epidemiology, the idea to slow the spread of the virus or break the chain of infection in the community at one given time so that number of cases of the pandemic in a day gets reduced, which can then lessen the burden on hospitals, health care system in the country and healthcare staff is known as “flattening the curve”.
The spokesperson further explaining the term and added,
The crucial thing here to understand is that we all must know that no country in this world is prepared enough to treat all its population at one given time. Our health care system has a capacity, there is a certain number of beds, ventilators, resources and health care staff. If the pandemic becomes huge and there are more and more number of people infected with the virus, our health care system will result in selective servicing, meaning doctors or health care facilities will be limited. A tough decision from the system will need to be taken on who gets treatment and who doesn’t. Since this virus spreads at an exponential level (when the growth rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size), there might be a shortage of health care facilities and this gap between the people affected by the virus and facilities there in the country to treat them is where the curve comes from.
What Does The Curve Signify?
Explaining what the curve signifies, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has recently come up with a visualisation depicting why the need of the hour is “flattening the curve”. The dotted line shows the capacity of the healthcare system, if there are more cases reported on a given day, the curve will move above the dotted line, which means the virus is spreading fast and is beyond the scope of current facilities to cope. A curve lower than the dotted line shows that fewer people are diagnosed with the virus and they all can be managed within the current capacity of the healthcare system.”
Also Read: COVID-19: What Tests Are Needed? Who Should Take The Coronavirus Test? All You Need To Know
Together, we can “flatten the curve” by practicing social distancing, staying home when sick, and washing hands often. This will reduce the strain on our hospitals and emergency rooms, and literally save the lives of our most vulnerable residents. #COVIDー19 #NovelCoronavirus pic.twitter.com/6Yzvg3DONv
— LA Public Health (@lapublichealth) March 15, 2020
Why It Is Important To Flatten The Curve?
Highlighting why it is necessary to keep the curve flattened, Dr Daniela Cirilloa, Medical Microbiologist, Milano, Italy gave an example of her own country and said,
In Italy, what we have learned, the need to keep this curve down is very important. Because if the spread is higher, the load on facilities will be higher, as a result, the chances of getting your doctors affected become higher. We must learn to protect the doctors because if you start losing your healthcare workers or start quarantining them then your health system will collapse. We had TO face a lot of load in the health care system in the last few days and have lost a lot of doctors.
Dr Arvind Kumar, Chairman, Center for Chest Surgery and Director, Institute of Robotic Surgery at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital (SGRH), Founder & Managing Trustee, Lung Care Foundation adds,
Keeping the curve down essentially means diminishing the rate at which new cases occur. If there will be lesser cases, it will prevent in overtaxing the finite resources (which in this case is your hospital, health care system and facilities).
How Can The Curve Be Flattened?
According to the country’s apex health research body – Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), strictly-implemented social-distancing measures will reduce the overall expected number of cases of the novel coronavirus pandemic by 62 per cent.
Explaining the importance of social-distancing and how it can curb the spread of the infection, a spokesperson said,
Coronavirus is a disease that spreads from one person to another. The coronavirus infected person tends to give the infection to one or more others, who go on to give it to more people, and the chain continues. Now, to break the chain of infection, social-distancing becomes a key player.
Also Read: Coronavirus Outbreak: Here Are The Answers To All Your Frequently Asked Questions On COVID-19
Is India Effective In Flattening The Curve Of Coronavirus?
Expressing concerns over the lack of data and testing that has been done in India for coronavirus, Dr Sanjay Nagral, Surgeon Jaslok Hospital, Mumbai said,
First of all it is very early days of the coronavirus, so the trends, data and studies will change, as we still don’t know the denominator. My worry is that India did not test that much and adequately, if I talk about Mumbai, for at least 10 and 15 days, there was just one centre in central Mumbai and not in the suburbs areas. So access to testing it is still bit of a problem and therefore if you don’t test enough you will get certain data and based on that data you might see the positive signs but we need to know that this data present out there has some limitations to it.
Also Read: Fight Against Coronavirus: A Look Inside India’s First Dedicated COVID-19 Hospital In Mumbai
Shamika Ravi, Director Of Research, Brookings India referring to the data (long term trend) from John Hopkins points out that India over the period of time has shown a downward trend and has flattened the curve slightly. She adds,
The actual number of cases will continue to rise, it is important that people understand this. If you look at pre-March 23 data, the rate at which the confirmed cases of coronavirus in India were rising, it was a rate at which we were doubling every three days. And from March 23 onwards that growth rate has declined, which means we are still growing but we are now growing at the rate where we are doubling every five days.
Further talking about the policies and lockdown that has come in effect in the wake of coronavirus outbreak in the country, Ms Ravi added,
The reason why we are seeing a huge expansion of coronavirus cases in US or EU countries is that those countries took the necessary steps after a certain time period. In India’s case, the government very proactively from the third week of January started airlifting students from Wuhan and other affected areas. The students were not brought in and let loose into the population, they were isolated and were kept in camps and then screening and surveillance started to happen. These were some proactive and very good steps we took at the start and because of that we started to see a slight flattening of the curve.
She further said, “Whatever the number of tests we are doing, the confirmed cases for every 100 tests is pretty low. We only have 2 per cent of positive tests for every 100 tests and this is remarkably low if you compare it with that of US, where it is about 15-18 per cent and Italy where there are some 18-20 positive cases per 100 tests. So, if we compare, I think the transmission has been slow, it has definitely bought us more time and what we do with this time is very critical right now.”
World
India
State & District Details
State | Cases | Active | Recovered | Deaths |
---|---|---|---|---|
DistrictCases Mumbai45,478 Thane13,660 Pune9,920 Mumbai Suburban5,363 Aurangabad1,974 Nashik1,575 Raigad1,462 Palghar1,421 Solapur1,291 Jalgaon1,039 Akola757 Nagpur692 Kolhapur646 Satara629 Ratnagiri350 Amravati291 Dhule228 Hingoli208 Jalna201 Ahmednagar190 Nanded176 Yavatmal150 Sangli145 Latur139 Osmanabad125 Sindhudurg114 Buldhana88 Parbhani78 gondia69 Beed54 Nandurbar42 Gadchiroli42 Bhandara41 Chandrapur32 Washim13 Wardha11 | 21,21,119 8,807 | 60,559 5,955 | 20,08,623 2,772 | 51,937 80 |
DistrictCases Kannur357 Kasaragod333 Palakkad224 Malappuram119 Kollam118 Thrissur106 Thiruvananthapuram104 Pathanamthitta98 Kozhikode90 Alappuzha76 Kottayam73 Ernakulam60 Idukki40 Wayanad36 | 10,45,009 4,106 | 53,153 1,796 | 9,87,720 5,885 | 4,136 17 |
DistrictCases Udupi1,176 Kalaburagi669 Yadgir538 Bengaluru Urban529 Raichur369 Mandya346 Belagavi337 Bidar219 Hassan205 Davangere204 Vijayapura201 Dakshina Kannada179 Chikkaballapura149 Mysuru107 Bagalkote103 Uttara Kannada95 Shivamogga67 Dharwad61 Ballari60 Gadag45 Bengaluru Rural40 Tumakuru36 Kolar29 Haveri24 Chikkamagaluru19 Chitradurga14 Koppal5 Kodagu4 Ramanagara3 Chamarajanagara0 | 9,49,183 334 | 6,096 15 | 9,30,778 313 | 12,309 6 |
DistrictCases Kurnool795 Krishna557 Guntur511 Anantapur428 East Godavari356 Chittoor319 Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*296 Y.S.R.205 West Godavari199 Srikakulam183 Prakasam104 Visakhapatnam103 Vizianagaram23 | 8,89,503 94 | 603 28 | 8,81,732 66 | 7,168 |
DistrictCases Chennai23,324 Chengalpattu1,314 Thiruvallur774 Villupuram509 Kanchipuram503 Tiruvannamalai496 Cuddalore477 Ariyalur444 Tirunelveli433 Tuticorin333 Kallakurichi324 Madurai322 Salem258 Coimbatore188 Virudhunagar185 Dindigul175 Perambalur133 Ranipet133 Thanjavur130 Theni129 Tiruchirappalli119 Ramanathapuram119 Tiruppur116 Kanniyakumari110 Tenkasi103 Nagapattinam99 Karur88 Namakkal83 Erode75 Vellore71 Thiruvarur67 Pudukkottai53 Sivaganga46 Tirupathur45 Krishnagiri43 The Nilgiris17 Dharmapuri15 | 8,49,629 463 | 4,062 12 | 8,33,089 469 | 12,478 6 |
DistrictCases North West5,463 Central4,817 West4,768 New Delhi3,405 North3,059 East2,472 South East2,446 South West2,391 South2,329 North East1,914 Shahdara1,580 | 6,38,373 200 | 1,137 128 | 6,26,331 70 | 10,905 2 |
DistrictCases Gautam Buddha Nagar1,119 Agra933 Ghaziabad794 Meerut504 Lucknow386 Saharanpur298 Kanpur Nagar286 Moradabad252 Varanasi243 Hapur225 Aligarh215 Basti214 Amethi206 Rampur203 Jaunpur194 Firozabad190 Barabanki168 Gorakhpur166 Bulandshahr166 Siddharth Nagar159 Ghazipur159 Bijnor157 Deoria143 Azamgarh138 Sant Kabeer Nagar132 Mathura129 Ayodhya120 Muzaffarnagar117 Sambhal116 Sultanpur97 Ambedkar Nagar92 Maharajganj85 Amroha80 Rae Bareli78 Bahraich73 Kheri72 Kannauj69 Baghpat68 Kushi Nagar67 Bhadohi60 Ballia60 Gonda59 Etah52 Hardoi49 Balrampur49 Mau48 Mainpuri46 Etawah46 Hathras43 Unnao42 Jalaun41 Jhansi41 Shamli40 Chandauli38 Auraiya37 Farrukhabad36 Sitapur32 Prayagraj30 Banda27 Shahjahanpur25 Shravasti23 Budaun23 Mirzapur22 Bareilly17 Kasganj16 Pratapgarh15 Pilibhit15 Sonbhadra10 Kaushambi6 Kanpur Dehat4 Chitrakoot4 Lalitpur3 Hamirpur3 Mahoba3 Fatehpur3 | 6,03,103 128 | 2,190 78 | 5,92,192 203 | 8,721 3 |
DistrictCases Kolkata2,777 Howrah1,435 24 Paraganas North1,031 Hooghly604 24 Paraganas South281 Maldah235 Dinajpur Uttar216 Coochbehar210 Birbhum206 Medinipur West159 Medinipur East153 Nadia139 Purba Bardhaman130 Murshidabad125 Bankura116 Darjeeling97 Jalpaiguri88 Paschim Bardhaman70 Purulia66 Dinajpur Dakshin50 Alipurduar39 Kalimpong18 Jhargram9 | 5,74,301 202 | 3,377 22 | 5,60,668 221 | 10,256 3 |
DistrictCases Ganjam581 Jajapur322 Khordha238 Baleshwar190 Kendrapara164 Cuttack155 Bhadrak137 Balangir129 Puri103 Sundargarh102 Jagatsinghapur91 Nayagarh86 Mayurbhanj73 Nuapada69 Gajapati61 Dhenkanal36 Boudh34 Kendujhar34 Deogarh33 Kalahandi33 Sonepur29 Kandhamal28 Anugul26 Malkangiri20 Bargarh16 Koraput16 Sambalpur16 Jharsuguda8 Nabarangpur2 Rayagada2 | 3,36,835 68 | 588 22 | 3,34,333 90 | 1,914 |
DistrictCases Jaipur2,177 Jodhpur1,748 Udaipur724 Bharatpur563 Kota503 Nagaur500 Ajmer379 Dungarpur374 Pali352 Jhalawar329 Bhilwara250 Sikar231 Chittorgarh188 Tonk171 Jalore164 Rajsamand140 Sirohi130 Bikaner112 Banswara91 Alwar90 Churu81 Jhunjhunu64 Dausa61 Dholpur60 Baran59 Jaisalmer53 Barmer34 Hanumangarh31 SawaiMadhopur26 Karauli17 Pratapgarh14 Ganganagar8 Bundi5 | 3,19,801 99 | 1,204 9 | 3,15,812 90 | 2,785 |
DistrictCases Bilaspur100 Korba100 Mungeli87 Baloda Bazar85 Jashpur77 Janjgir-Champa56 Mahasamund54 Rajnandgaon52 Kabirdham52 Raigarh47 Raipur46 Balod41 Korea39 Durg31 Bemetara21 Kanker19 Balrampur17 Surguja14 Gariyaband10 Surajpur9 Dhamtari6 Bijapur2 Bastar2 Dantewada0 Kondagaon0 Narayanpur0 Sukma0 | 3,11,680 247 | 2,911 66 | 3,04,956 309 | 3,813 4 |
DistrictCases Hyderabad2,475 Ranga Reddy183 Suryapet87 Jagitial77 Nizamabad76 MedchalMalkajgiri75 Mancherial43 YadadriBhuvanagiri40 Jogulamba Gadwal40 Vikarabad40 Nalgonda33 Warangal Urban32 Mahabubnagar30 Sangareddy26 Khammam26 Adilabad22 Nirmal21 Karimnagar17 RajannaSircilla16 Medak11 Kamareddy11 Mahabubabad10 Jayashankar Bhupalapally9 Nagarkurnool8 Kumuram Bheem Asifabad8 Jangoan8 Siddipet7 Peddapalli5 Bhadradri Kothagudem5 Warangal Rural4 Mulugu3 Narayanpet3 Wanaparthy1 | 2,98,264 207 | 1,852 107 | 2,94,782 99 | 1,630 1 |
DistrictCases Gurugram2,950 Faridabad867 Sonipat404 Rohtak145 Palwal120 Jhajjar114 Karnal104 Hisar98 Ambala93 Panipat78 Nuh68 Bhiwani60 Rewari56 Kurukshetra55 Sirsa50 Kaithal48 Mahendragarh47 CharkiDadri43 Panchkula39 Fatehabad38 Jind38 Yamunanagar19 | 2,70,097 130 | 955 47 | 2,66,099 82 | 3,043 1 |
DistrictCases Ahmadabad17,125 Surat2,311 Vadodara1,555 Gandhinagar410 Mahesana159 Banas Kantha147 Bhavnagar146 Rajkot135 Arvalli134 Mahisagar125 Anand107 PanchMahals107 Patan105 SabarKantha101 Kachchh99 Kheda98 Jamnagar63 Bharuch56 Botad55 Surendranagar55 Valsad47 GirSomnath45 Dohad43 Chhotaudepur37 Naysari35 Junagadh31 Narmada25 DevbhumiDwarka22 Amreli16 Porbandar11 Tapi6 Dang5 Morbi4 | 2,68,147 380 | 1,869 83 | 2,61,871 296 | 4,407 1 |
DistrictCases Patna279 Bhagalpur266 Rohtas256 Khagaria253 Begusarai243 Madhubani199 Munger188 Jehanabad178 Katihar175 Darbhanga143 Samastipur139 Siwan139 PurbiChamparan138 Purnia135 Banka134 Buxar134 Nalanda123 Gopalganj123 Nawada122 Sheikhpura118 Gaya115 Kaimur (bhabua)105 Bhojpur103 Saran101 Muzaffarpur96 Saharsa88 Supaul87 Vaishali87 Madhepura82 Kishanganj75 Aurangabad75 Sitamarhi73 Lakhisarai72 Araria68 Pashchim Champaran57 Arwal52 Jamui47 Sheohar20 | 2,62,357 54 | 509 39 | 2,60,310 92 | 1,538 1 |
DistrictCases Indore3,839 Bhopal1,880 Ujjain799 Burhanpur351 Neemuch319 Jabalpur276 East Nimar266 Sagar228 Gwalior211 Khargone196 Dewas140 Dhar132 Mandsaur112 Morena109 Bhind87 Raisen71 Barwani60 Ratlam51 Rewa39 Shajapur39 Hoshangabad37 Vidisha37 Chhatarpur35 Betul35 Rajgarh31 Dindori29 Sheopur26 Damoh26 Satna24 Anuppur22 Panna20 Tikamgarh18 Sidhi17 Narsinghpur17 Chhindwara16 Agar Malwa15 Mandla15 Shivpuri15 Jhabua14 Shandol14 Singrauli13 Ashoknagar13 Datia12 Sehore12 Umaria10 Balaghat9 Guna8 Harda4 Alirajpur3 Katni3 Seoni2 Niwari0 | 2,60,313 344 | 2,270 119 | 2,54,186 223 | 3,857 2 |
DistrictCases Kamrup Metro276 Golaghat203 Nagaon143 Hojai89 Dima Hasao86 Karimganj85 Tinsukia84 Cachar80 Dibrugarh61 Hailakandi57 Lakhimpur57 Marigaon50 Dhemaji47 Kamrup42 Kokrajhar37 Dhubri30 Charaideo29 Barpeta28 Udalguri28 Sonitpur27 Jorhat24 Nalbari23 Darrang20 Sivasagar20 Goalpara19 Biswanath16 Baksa14 KarbiAnglong13 Bongaigaon12 Chirang6 West KarbiAnglong5 South SalmaraMancachar4 Majuli2 | 2,17,454 27 | 1,606 2 | 2,14,757 25 | 1,091 |
DistrictCases Amritsar485 Jalandhar297 Ludhiana293 Tarn Taran163 Gurdaspur154 Hoshiarpur140 S.A.S Nagar137 Patiala132 Sangrur107 Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)99 Pathankot86 Rupnagar (Ropar)74 Faridkot74 Sri Muktsar Sahib71 Moga65 Bathinda60 Fatehgarh Sahib57 Fazilka53 Firozepur50 Kapurthala44 Mansa31 Barnala25 | 1,79,819 558 | 3,598 303 | 1,70,435 248 | 5,786 7 |
DistrictCases Anantnag395 Srinagar300 Kulgam295 Baramulla271 Shopian255 Kupwara231 Bandipora175 Udhampur155 Ramban151 Jammu138 Budgam110 Pulwama108 Kathua53 Rajouri39 Ganderbal37 Poonch35 Doda27 Reasi26 Samba25 Kishtwar10 Mirpur0 Muzaffarabad0 | 1,26,093 74 | 771 5 | 1,23,367 69 | 1,955 |
DistrictCases East Singhbum170 Ranchi148 Hazaribagh110 Garhwa80 Ramgarh75 Koderma58 Simdega48 Dhanbad32 Gumla28 Palamu27 West Singhbhum21 SaraikelaKharsawan20 Giridih19 Bokaro16 Latehar14 Khunti10 Lohardaga8 Deoghar5 Dumka5 Pakur4 Jamtara2 Godda2 Chatra1 Sahebganj0 | 1,19,719 32 | 431 16 | 1,18,201 47 | 1,087 1 |
DistrictCases Dehradun370 Nainital323 Tehri Garhwal110 Haridwar94 Udam Singh Nagar83 Almora71 Champawat45 Pithoragarh43 Chamoli36 PauriGarhwal36 Bageshwar31 Rudraprayag30 Uttar Kashi24 | 97,031 | 491 0 | 94,850 | 1,690 |
DistrictCases Hamirpur117 Kangra105 Una41 Solan32 Chamba29 Bilaspur21 Mandi21 Sirmaur11 Shimla10 Kullu4 Kinnaur2 Lahaul And Spiti0 | 58,457 34 | 229 11 | 57,233 23 | 995 |
DistrictCases South Goa69 North Goa57 | 54,700 52 | 495 16 | 53,416 35 | 789 1 |
DistrictCases Pondicherry111 Mahe4 Karaikal2 Yanam0 | 39,656 28 | 189 10 | 38,801 17 | 666 1 |
DistrictCases Dhalai196 Sepahijala174 Gomati74 South Tripura53 Unakoti49 West Tripura45 Khowai24 North Tripura14 | 33,400 | 25 22 | 32,984 22 | 391 |
DistrictCases Churachandpur32 Kangpokpi26 Imphal West21 Thoubal18 Imphal East10 Tengnoupal9 Bishnupur7 Senapati6 Chandel5 Kamjong5 Ukhrul4 Jiribam3 Pherzawl3 Kakching2 Tamenglong2 Noney1 | 29,250 7 | 41 5 | 28,836 2 | 373 |
DistrictCases Chandigarh313 | 21,541 41 | 250 23 | 20,940 17 | 351 1 |
DistrictCases Changlang31 Papum Pare8 Lohit3 Namsai2 West Siang1 East Siang1 Upper Siang1 Tawang1 PakkeKessang1 West Kameng0 Upper Subansiri0 Tirap0 Siang0 Shi Yomi0 Anjaw0 Lower Subansiri0 Lower Dibang Valley0 Longding0 Leparada0 KurungKumey0 KraDaadi0 Kamle0 East Kameng0 Dibang Valley0 Lower Siang0 | 16,836 | 4 0 | 16,776 | 56 |
DistrictCases East Khasi Hills22 West Garo Hills5 South West Garo Hills4 North Garo Hills1 West Jaintia Hills1 West Khasi Hills1 East Garo Hills0 East Jaintia Hills0 Ribhoi0 South Garo Hills0 South West Khasi Hills0 | 13,958 3 | 18 2 | 13,792 5 | 148 |
DistrictCases Dimapur20 Mon8 Kohima7 Kiphire3 Tuensang3 Peren2 Phek1 Longleng0 Mokokchung0 Wokha0 Zunheboto0 | 12,192 | 8 4 | 12,093 4 | 91 |
DistrictCases Kargil77 LehLadakh43 | 9,807 11 | 53 8 | 9,624 3 | 130 |
DistrictCases East District3 South District3 North District0 West District0 | 6,132 | 47 0 | 5,950 | 135 |
DistrictCases South Andamans33 Nicobars1 North And Middle Andaman1 | 5,016 | 4 1 | 4,950 1 | 62 |
DistrictCases Kolasib11 Aizawl10 Mamit8 Lawngtlai2 Lunglei2 Saitual1 Champhai0 Hnahthial0 Khawzawl0 Saiha0 Serchhip0 | 4,413 | 23 1 | 4,380 1 | 10 |
DistrictCases Dadra And Nagar Haveli20 | 3,404 2 | 4 2 | 3,398 | 2 |
DistrictCases Lakshadweep District0 | 322 6 | 86 6 | 236 | 0 |