COVID-19 Pandemic Explained: What Is Reproduction (R) Number And Why Does It Matter?

COVID-19 Pandemic Explained: What Is Reproduction (R) Number And Why Does It Matter?

According to experts, R number helps in understanding how fast and wide is the infection spreading; but what exactly is the R number and why does it matter during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic?
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COVID-19 Pandemic Explained: What Is Reproduction (R) Number And Why Does It Matter?The governments around the world are targeting to bring R number for COVID-19 below 1. Experts explain why
Highlights
  • The latest R effective estimate for the country is 0.90
  • R value tells how many people are infected by one infected person
  • An R value of less than 1 suggests that the rate of infection is slow

New Delhi: In the past 11 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have gained a decent grasp on once-unpopular terms and concepts like personal protective equipment (PPE), social distancing, doubling rate and “flattening of the curve”. We have all seen ourselves grow from being completely clueless about the infectious disease to becoming budding armchair virologists. However, there is one phrase used widely but may still confuse many: the Reproduction or R number. According to experts, R number is an important parameter to know the spread of an infectious disease. The aim while fighting a pandemic should be to shrink the R number below 1 and keep it there, say experts. NDTV spoke with Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, epidemiologist, vaccinologist, and public health and policy expert based in Delhi and Dr Preeti Kumar, Vice President- Public Health System Support at the Public Health Foundation of India to know what is R number and why does it matter.

Also Read: Study Uncovers Subset Of COVID-19 Patients Who Recover Quickly And Sustain Antibodies

According to Dr Lahariya, R refers to an infectious disease’s capacity to spread. It signifies the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus to. In other words, it measures the number of new cases from one infected person. Explaining further he said,

R number changes over the course of time due to various factors like how infectious the disease is, how it develops, how a population behaves, immunity among people from the infection or vaccine, and other such factors.

He further added that a place that is densely populated is likely to have a higher R than a sparsely populated area.

R0 And Rt

R number is represented by R0 or ‘R nought’ and Rt or ‘Effective Reproduction Number’ or simply ‘R Effective’.

According to Dr Kumar, R0 is the average number of secondary infections by a typical case, where everyone is susceptible or is not immune to the disease which happens at the beginning of an epidemic or a pandemic. For example, if R0 is 5, it indicates that each infected person will infect at least five other people and each of those five persons will infect five more persons and so on. She said that R0 is affected by the rate of contacts in the population, the probability of infection being transmitted, and the duration of infectiousness. She said,

An R0 value matters because above 1 means that the epidemic will grow exponentially, while below 1 means it is not growing and the disease will eventually stop spreading. We all want R0 below 1 which shows that not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak.

R0 can be brought below 1 once the infected persons transmit the disease to less than 1 person, on an average. This can be achieved when people gain immunity against the infection either via vaccine or herd immunity which is a stage where enough people become immune by getting infected naturally and fighting it that more people are not catching the infection. As per experts, Measles is one of the diseases that have a high R0 of 15 in populations with immunity. This implies that on average, one person will spread measles to 15 others.

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Rt, on the other hand, is a measure of 1 person infecting the number of other persons in a population among whom the precautionary measures to avoid the infection are being followed strictly. In the case of COVID-19, the precautionary measures include wearing masks in public, maintaining social distancing, washing hands regularly, wiping high-touch surfaces frequently among others. If the Rt is 3, this means that one infected person can pass on the infection to three more persons and those three will further infect three each on an average. But by following recommended safety measures Rt can be brought down to less than 1 which means that the transmission is slowing down.

According to Dr Lahariya, R is calculated using data such as the number of people dying, admitted to hospital or testing positive for the virus over time.

During the initial days of the pandemic, in March and April, the Rt value in the country was more than 2 which decreased to less than 1 in September. The latest R effective estimate for the country is 0.90. Regionally if we see, on Thursday, November 5, Himachal Pradesh recorded the highest Rt value in India at 1.20. Haryana recorded the second-highest Rt value at 1.19. This was followed by Delhi and Mizoram at 1.18, Ladakh at 1.08 and Chandigarh at 1.05. On the other hand, Karnataka recorded the lowest Rt value in the country at 0.54. This was followed by Puducherry at 0.62, Nagaland at 0.66, Assam at 0.73, Bihar at 0.77, and Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura at 0.83.

The experts warn against complacency that may set in among the public and the authorities as the R number goes below 1. This is because until the immunity is built against the virus, any negligence can result in an increase in R number.

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NDTV – Dettol Banega Swasth India campaign is an extension of the five-year-old Banega Swachh India initiative helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. It aims to spread awareness about critical health issues facing the country. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign highlights the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children to prevent maternal and child mortality, fight malnutrition, stunting, wasting, anaemia and disease prevention through vaccines. Importance of programmes like Public Distribution System (PDS), Mid-day Meal Scheme, POSHAN Abhiyan and the role of Aganwadis and ASHA workers are also covered. Only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and become a Swasth or healthy India. The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene

World

6,38,24,717Cases
2,13,44,996Active
4,09,99,778Recovered
14,79,943Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 191 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 6,38,24,717 and 14,79,943 have died; 2,13,44,996 are active cases and 4,09,99,778 have recovered as on December 2, 2020 at 4:06 am.

India

94,99,413 36604Cases
4,28,644 -6959Active
89,32,647 43062Recovered
1,38,122 501Deaths
In India, there are 94,99,413 confirmed cases including 1,38,122 deaths. The number of active cases is 4,28,644 and 89,32,647 have recovered as on December 2, 2020 at 2:30 am.

State & District Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
DistrictCases
Mumbai45,478
Thane13,660
Pune9,920
Mumbai Suburban5,363
Aurangabad1,974
Nashik1,575
Raigad1,462
Palghar1,421
Solapur1,291
Jalgaon1,039
Akola757
Nagpur692
Kolhapur646
Satara629
Ratnagiri350
Amravati291
Dhule228
Hingoli208
Jalna201
Ahmednagar190
Nanded176
Yavatmal150
Sangli145
Latur139
Osmanabad125
Sindhudurg114
Buldhana88
Parbhani78
gondia69
Beed54
Nandurbar42
Gadchiroli42
Bhandara41
Chandrapur32
Washim13
Wardha11

18,28,826 4,930

90,168 1,455

16,91,412 6,290

47,246 95

DistrictCases
Udupi1,176
Kalaburagi669
Yadgir538
Bengaluru Urban529
Raichur369
Mandya346
Belagavi337
Bidar219
Hassan205
Davangere204
Vijayapura201
Dakshina Kannada179
Chikkaballapura149
Mysuru107
Bagalkote103
Uttara Kannada95
Shivamogga67
Dharwad61
Ballari60
Gadag45
Bengaluru Rural40
Tumakuru36
Kolar29
Haveri24
Chikkamagaluru19
Chitradurga14
Koppal5
Kodagu4
Ramanagara3
Chamarajanagara0

8,86,227 1,330

23,728 430

8,50,707 886

11,792 14

DistrictCases
Kurnool795
Krishna557
Guntur511
Anantapur428
East Godavari356
Chittoor319
Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*296
Y.S.R.205
West Godavari199
Srikakulam183
Prakasam104
Visakhapatnam103
Vizianagaram23

8,68,749 685

7,427 413

8,54,326 1,094

6,996 4

DistrictCases
Chennai23,324
Chengalpattu1,314
Thiruvallur774
Villupuram509
Kanchipuram503
Tiruvannamalai496
Cuddalore477
Ariyalur444
Tirunelveli433
Tuticorin333
Kallakurichi324
Madurai322
Salem258
Coimbatore188
Virudhunagar185
Dindigul175
Perambalur133
Ranipet133
Thanjavur130
Theni129
Tiruchirappalli119
Ramanathapuram119
Tiruppur116
Kanniyakumari110
Tenkasi103
Nagapattinam99
Karur88
Namakkal83
Erode75
Vellore71
Thiruvarur67
Pudukkottai53
Sivaganga46
Tirupathur45
Krishnagiri43
The Nilgiris17
Dharmapuri15

7,83,319 1,404

10,980 17

7,60,617 1,411

11,722 10

DistrictCases
Kannur357
Kasaragod333
Palakkad224
Malappuram119
Kollam118
Thrissur106
Thiruvananthapuram104
Pathanamthitta98
Kozhikode90
Alappuzha76
Kottayam73
Ernakulam60
Idukki40
Wayanad36

6,08,357 5,375

61,223 802

5,44,864 6,151

2,270 26

DistrictCases
North West5,463
Central4,817
West4,768
New Delhi3,405
North3,059
East2,472
South East2,446
South West2,391
South2,329
North East1,914
Shahdara1,580

5,74,380 4,006

31,769 1,116

5,33,351 5,036

9,260 86

DistrictCases
Gautam Buddha Nagar1,119
Agra933
Ghaziabad794
Meerut504
Lucknow386
Saharanpur298
Kanpur Nagar286
Moradabad252
Varanasi243
Hapur225
Aligarh215
Basti214
Amethi206
Rampur203
Jaunpur194
Firozabad190
Barabanki168
Gorakhpur166
Bulandshahr166
Siddharth Nagar159
Ghazipur159
Bijnor157
Deoria143
Azamgarh138
Sant Kabeer Nagar132
Mathura129
Ayodhya120
Muzaffarnagar117
Sambhal116
Sultanpur97
Ambedkar Nagar92
Maharajganj85
Amroha80
Rae Bareli78
Bahraich73
Kheri72
Kannauj69
Baghpat68
Kushi Nagar67
Bhadohi60
Ballia60
Gonda59
Etah52
Hardoi49
Balrampur49
Mau48
Mainpuri46
Etawah46
Hathras43
Unnao42
Jalaun41
Jhansi41
Shamli40
Chandauli38
Auraiya37
Farrukhabad36
Sitapur32
Prayagraj30
Banda27
Shahjahanpur25
Shravasti23
Budaun23
Mirzapur22
Bareilly17
Kasganj16
Pratapgarh15
Pilibhit15
Sonbhadra10
Kaushambi6
Kanpur Dehat4
Chitrakoot4
Lalitpur3
Hamirpur3
Mahoba3
Fatehpur3

5,45,545 1,657

23,670 429

5,14,087 2,059

7,788 27

DistrictCases
Kolkata2,777
Howrah1,435
24 Paraganas North1,031
Hooghly604
24 Paraganas South281
Maldah235
Dinajpur Uttar216
Coochbehar210
Birbhum206
Medinipur West159
Medinipur East153
Nadia139
Purba Bardhaman130
Murshidabad125
Bankura116
Darjeeling97
Jalpaiguri88
Paschim Bardhaman70
Purulia66
Dinajpur Dakshin50
Alipurduar39
Kalimpong18
Jhargram9

4,86,799 3,315

24,221 77

4,54,102 3,340

8,476 52

DistrictCases
Ganjam581
Jajapur322
Khordha238
Baleshwar190
Kendrapara164
Cuttack155
Bhadrak137
Balangir129
Puri103
Sundargarh102
Jagatsinghapur91
Nayagarh86
Mayurbhanj73
Nuapada69
Gajapati61
Dhenkanal36
Boudh34
Kendujhar34
Deogarh33
Kalahandi33
Sonepur29
Kandhamal28
Anugul26
Malkangiri20
Bargarh16
Koraput16
Sambalpur16
Jharsuguda8
Nabarangpur2
Rayagada2

3,19,103 378

4,625 296

3,12,734 669

1,744 5

DistrictCases
Hyderabad2,475
Ranga Reddy183
Suryapet87
Jagitial77
Nizamabad76
MedchalMalkajgiri75
Mancherial43
YadadriBhuvanagiri40
Jogulamba Gadwal40
Vikarabad40
Nalgonda33
Warangal Urban32
Mahabubnagar30
Sangareddy26
Khammam26
Adilabad22
Nirmal21
Karimnagar17
RajannaSircilla16
Medak11
Kamareddy11
Mahabubabad10
Jayashankar Bhupalapally9
Nagarkurnool8
Kumuram Bheem Asifabad8
Jangoan8
Siddipet7
Peddapalli5
Bhadradri Kothagudem5
Warangal Rural4
Mulugu3
Narayanpet3
Wanaparthy1

2,70,883 565

9,266 361

2,60,155 925

1,462 1

DistrictCases
Jaipur2,177
Jodhpur1,748
Udaipur724
Bharatpur563
Kota503
Nagaur500
Ajmer379
Dungarpur374
Pali352
Jhalawar329
Bhilwara250
Sikar231
Chittorgarh188
Tonk171
Jalore164
Rajsamand140
Sirohi130
Bikaner112
Banswara91
Alwar90
Churu81
Jhunjhunu64
Dausa61
Dholpur60
Baran59
Jaisalmer53
Barmer34
Hanumangarh31
SawaiMadhopur26
Karauli17
Pratapgarh14
Ganganagar8
Bundi5

2,70,410 2,347

27,974 679

2,40,105 3,007

2,331 19

DistrictCases
Bilaspur100
Korba100
Mungeli87
Baloda Bazar85
Jashpur77
Janjgir-Champa56
Mahasamund54
Rajnandgaon52
Kabirdham52
Raigarh47
Raipur46
Balod41
Korea39
Durg31
Bemetara21
Kanker19
Balrampur17
Surguja14
Gariyaband10
Surajpur9
Dhamtari6
Bijapur2
Bastar2
Dantewada0
Kondagaon0
Narayanpur0
Sukma0

2,39,215 1,893

19,333 302

2,16,990 2,164

2,892 31

DistrictCases
Gurugram2,950
Faridabad867
Sonipat404
Rohtak145
Palwal120
Jhajjar114
Karnal104
Hisar98
Ambala93
Panipat78
Nuh68
Bhiwani60
Rewari56
Kurukshetra55
Sirsa50
Kaithal48
Mahendragarh47
CharkiDadri43
Panchkula39
Fatehabad38
Jind38
Yamunanagar19

2,35,997 1,871

17,744 618

2,15,797 2,461

2,456 28

DistrictCases
Patna279
Bhagalpur266
Rohtas256
Khagaria253
Begusarai243
Madhubani199
Munger188
Jehanabad178
Katihar175
Darbhanga143
Samastipur139
Siwan139
PurbiChamparan138
Purnia135
Banka134
Buxar134
Nalanda123
Gopalganj123
Nawada122
Sheikhpura118
Gaya115
Kaimur (bhabua)105
Bhojpur103
Saran101
Muzaffarpur96
Saharsa88
Supaul87
Vaishali87
Madhepura82
Kishanganj75
Aurangabad75
Sitamarhi73
Lakhisarai72
Araria68
Pashchim Champaran57
Arwal52
Jamui47
Sheohar20

2,35,152 542

5,568 209

2,28,316 329

1,268 4

DistrictCases
Kamrup Metro276
Golaghat203
Nagaon143
Hojai89
Dima Hasao86
Karimganj85
Tinsukia84
Cachar80
Dibrugarh61
Hailakandi57
Lakhimpur57
Marigaon50
Dhemaji47
Kamrup42
Kokrajhar37
Dhubri30
Charaideo29
Barpeta28
Udalguri28
Sonitpur27
Jorhat24
Nalbari23
Darrang20
Sivasagar20
Goalpara19
Biswanath16
Baksa14
KarbiAnglong13
Bongaigaon12
Chirang6
West KarbiAnglong5
South SalmaraMancachar4
Majuli2

2,12,998 222

3,486 87

2,08,531 135

981

DistrictCases
Ahmadabad17,125
Surat2,311
Vadodara1,555
Gandhinagar410
Mahesana159
Banas Kantha147
Bhavnagar146
Rajkot135
Arvalli134
Mahisagar125
Anand107
PanchMahals107
Patan105
SabarKantha101
Kachchh99
Kheda98
Jamnagar63
Bharuch56
Botad55
Surendranagar55
Valsad47
GirSomnath45
Dohad43
Chhotaudepur37
Naysari35
Junagadh31
Narmada25
DevbhumiDwarka22
Amreli16
Porbandar11
Tapi6
Dang5
Morbi4

2,11,257 1,477

14,885 85

1,92,368 1,547

4,004 15

DistrictCases
Indore3,839
Bhopal1,880
Ujjain799
Burhanpur351
Neemuch319
Jabalpur276
East Nimar266
Sagar228
Gwalior211
Khargone196
Dewas140
Dhar132
Mandsaur112
Morena109
Bhind87
Raisen71
Barwani60
Ratlam51
Rewa39
Shajapur39
Hoshangabad37
Vidisha37
Chhatarpur35
Betul35
Rajgarh31
Dindori29
Sheopur26
Damoh26
Satna24
Anuppur22
Panna20
Tikamgarh18
Sidhi17
Narsinghpur17
Chhindwara16
Agar Malwa15
Mandla15
Shivpuri15
Jhabua14
Shandol14
Singrauli13
Ashoknagar13
Datia12
Sehore12
Umaria10
Balaghat9
Guna8
Harda4
Alirajpur3
Katni3
Seoni2
Niwari0

2,07,485 1,357

14,435 336

1,89,780 1,683

3,270 10

DistrictCases
Amritsar485
Jalandhar297
Ludhiana293
Tarn Taran163
Gurdaspur154
Hoshiarpur140
S.A.S Nagar137
Patiala132
Sangrur107
Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)99
Pathankot86
Rupnagar (Ropar)74
Faridkot74
Sri Muktsar Sahib71
Moga65
Bathinda60
Fatehgarh Sahib57
Fazilka53
Firozepur50
Kapurthala44
Mansa31
Barnala25

1,52,709 618

7,634 208

1,40,254 812

4,821 14

DistrictCases
Anantnag395
Srinagar300
Kulgam295
Baramulla271
Shopian255
Kupwara231
Bandipora175
Udhampur155
Ramban151
Jammu138
Budgam110
Pulwama108
Kathua53
Rajouri39
Ganderbal37
Poonch35
Doda27
Reasi26
Samba25
Kishtwar10
Mirpur0
Muzaffarabad0

1,10,678 454

4,908 57

1,04,068 503

1,702 8

DistrictCases
East Singhbum170
Ranchi148
Hazaribagh110
Garhwa80
Ramgarh75
Koderma58
Simdega48
Dhanbad32
Gumla28
Palamu27
West Singhbhum21
SaraikelaKharsawan20
Giridih19
Bokaro16
Latehar14
Khunti10
Lohardaga8
Deoghar5
Dumka5
Pakur4
Jamtara2
Godda2
Chatra1
Sahebganj0

1,09,332 181

1,965 51

1,06,398 227

969 5

DistrictCases
Dehradun370
Nainital323
Tehri Garhwal110
Haridwar94
Udam Singh Nagar83
Almora71
Champawat45
Pithoragarh43
Chamoli36
PauriGarhwal36
Bageshwar31
Rudraprayag30
Uttar Kashi24

75,268 473

4,947 112

69,083 578

1,238 7

DistrictCases
South Goa69
North Goa57

48,124 161

1,366 31

46,068 128

690 2

DistrictCases
Hamirpur117
Kangra105
Una41
Solan32
Chamba29
Bilaspur21
Mandi21
Sirmaur11
Shimla10
Kullu4
Kinnaur2
Lahaul And Spiti0

41,227 709

8,218 71

32,343 759

666 21

DistrictCases
Pondicherry111
Mahe4
Karaikal2
Yanam0

37,020 52

439 21

35,970 72

611 1

DistrictCases
Dhalai196
Sepahijala174
Gomati74
South Tripura53
Unakoti49
West Tripura45
Khowai24
North Tripura14

32,764 38

571 21

31,821 57

372 2

DistrictCases
Churachandpur32
Kangpokpi26
Imphal West21
Thoubal18
Imphal East10
Tengnoupal9
Bishnupur7
Senapati6
Chandel5
Kamjong5
Ukhrul4
Jiribam3
Pherzawl3
Kakching2
Tamenglong2
Noney1

25,243 198

3,236 38

21,718 152

289 8

DistrictCases
Chandigarh313

17,537 128

1,086 24

16,173 103

278 1

DistrictCases
Changlang31
Papum Pare8
Lohit3
Namsai2
West Siang1
East Siang1
Upper Siang1
Tawang1
PakkeKessang1
West Kameng0
Upper Subansiri0
Tirap0
Siang0
Shi Yomi0
Anjaw0
Lower Subansiri0
Lower Dibang Valley0
Longding0
Leparada0
KurungKumey0
KraDaadi0
Kamle0
East Kameng0
Dibang Valley0
Lower Siang0

16,296 14

786 31

15,456 45

54

DistrictCases
East Khasi Hills22
West Garo Hills5
South West Garo Hills4
North Garo Hills1
West Jaintia Hills1
West Khasi Hills1
East Garo Hills0
East Jaintia Hills0
Ribhoi0
South Garo Hills0
South West Khasi Hills0

11,875 65

669 94

11,094 158

112 1

DistrictCases
Dimapur20
Mon8
Kohima7
Kiphire3
Tuensang3
Peren2
Phek1
Longleng0
Mokokchung0
Wokha0
Zunheboto0

11,209 23

843 85

10,302 108

64

DistrictCases
Kargil77
LehLadakh43

8,477 62

793 16

7,565 76

119 2

DistrictCases
East District3
South District3
North District0
West District0

5,031 42

284 36

4,637 5

110 1

DistrictCases
South Andamans33
Nicobars1
North And Middle Andaman1

4,718 8

91 8

4,566 16

61

DistrictCases
Kolasib11
Aizawl10
Mamit8
Lawngtlai2
Lunglei2
Saitual1
Champhai0
Hnahthial0
Khawzawl0
Saiha0
Serchhip0

3,869 22

291 52

3,572 73

6 1

DistrictCases
Dadra And Nagar Haveli20

3,334 2

15 1

3,317 3

2

DistrictCases
Lakshadweep District0

0

0 0

0

0

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