Herd Immunity In India May Generate Only In Pockets, Can Be Short-Lived: Scientists

Herd Immunity In India May Generate Only In Pockets, Can Be Short-Lived: Scientists

According to experts, herd immunity occurs when a large number of people, usually 70 to 90 per cent, become immune to a contagious disease after being infected to it
Coronavirus Outbreak, News
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Explainer: Reaching Herd Immunity In A Viral PandemicThere are two pathways to herd immunity: natural infection or vaccination
Highlights
  • In India, the idea of lasting herd immunity may not be practical: Expert
  • 57% of slum population has developed COVID19 antibodies: Mumbai sero-survey
  • After recovering, people are unlikely to get the re-infection soon: Experts

New Delhi: Herd immunity against COVID-19 in India is likely to be achieved only in pockets given the many socio-economic groups in the country and may be short-lived rather than long-lasting, say scientists as sero-surveillance data from New Delhi and Mumbai raise hopes of ‘community protection’ from the disease. Herd immunity occurs when a large number of people, usually 70 to 90 per cent, become immune to a contagious disease after being infected to it. But there are many grey areas clouding the issue as far as the novel coronavirus is concerned with no consensus on when herd immunity sets in.

Also Read: Scientists Map How Coronavirus Spreads Indoor Via Aerosol

Shahid Jameel, virologist and CEO of the Wellcome Trust/DBT India Alliance, a public charity that invests in building biomedical sciences and health research frameworks,

There are no clear numbers to say at what per cent of infected population we will achieve herd immunity. Many epidemiologists believe that for SARS-CoV-2 it would be at around 60 per cent.

He said different parts of the country will get closer to herd immunity at different times. A recent study published in the journal Science also found that herd immunity against COVID-19 could be achieved with fewer people being infected than previously estimated. Virologist Upasana Ray explained,

Herd immunity is determined primarily by how many individuals in a population are immune to a particular infection. This results in indirect immunity to others in the population who never got exposed or infected. Essentially, herd immunity means that the more the number of people get infected and develop immunity, the less chance there is for others in the population to get infected.

Immunologist Satyajit Rath agreed that it was not known at what point of the infection herd immunity would set in.

In India, with its multitude of socio-economic groupings, herd immunity may be generated in pockets rather than uniformly across the country, and may be short-lived. And therefore, the idea of naturally generated long-lasting herd immunity may not be of much practical policy relevance for India. Mr. Rath, from New Delhi’s National Institute of Immunology, told PTI.

The debate on herd immunity intensified following sero-surveys from New Delhi and Mumbai, two of India’s most populated cities where the number of COVID-19 cases surged before showing a declining trend.

Also Read: More Than 1 Million Patients Recovered From COVID-19 Till Now In India: Health Ministry

The sero-surveillance study in Mumbai revealed that 57 per cent of its slum population and 16 per cent of its non-slum residents in three civic wards had developed antibodies, indicating many people would already be affected by COVID-19 than the official tally suggests. “These results will be valuable to learn more about herd immunity,” stated Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in a statement.

Delhi’s sero-survey showed that nearly 23 per cent of the people had exposure to the novel coronavirus, which has infected over 1.5 million people in the country and killed nearly 35,000. Sero-surveillance provides estimates of antibody levels against infectious diseases and is considered the gold standard for measuring population immunity due to past infection or vaccination.

An antibody is a large, Y-shaped protein produced mainly by plasma cells that is used by the immune system to neutralise pathogens like viruses. Mr. Rath noted that seropositivity does not necessarily indicate protective immunity, adding that there is some evidence the antibody responses may be short-lived, in which case many people may soon become ‘susceptible’ again.

On the other hand, he said, infected people also develop T cell immune responses which are not being measured in such surveys. T cells — that play a central role in the immune response — might be somewhat longer-lasting, but it is not known what their relationship with protection is.

Also Read: Smokers Are More Likely To Develop Severe Symptoms Of COVID-19: Ministry Of Health

“So while my guess is that, broadly, once we get infected we are likely to be somewhat immune, at least for a few months, against re-infection, I think there are many unknowns and caveats and we should not be jumping to easy conclusions,” Mr. Rath added. Virologist Jameel said it would be a mistake to talk of herd immunity on a national scale.

This is because conditions such as population density, virus prevalence and transmission of infection vary across the country and even within a state of a metro city. For example, one cannot compare Mumbai city to Arunachal Pradesh. Even in Mumbai, one cannot compare a densely populated area such as Dharavi to South Mumbai. Herd immunity is best understood in terms of a community, locality or population group, Mr. Jameel told PTI.

Herd immunity, Ms. Ray added, also depends on how Infectious the pathogen is.

So, if a virus is extremely infectious and less pathogenic, herd immunity will be achieved faster, she said.

Pathogenicity is the capacity of a virus to cause damage in a host, while infectivity is the ability of a pathogen to establish an infection.

So, the more the pathogenicity, the more time it will take for herd immunity. More the infectivity, and if it’s moderate to less pathogenic, the faster shall we achieve herd immunity, Ms. Ray said.

A Spanish study published in The Lancet journal in the first week of July cast doubts over the feasibility of herd immunity as a way of tackling the pandemic. The study of over 60,000 people estimated that around just five per cent of the Spanish population has developed antibodies.

Depending upon what model you believe in, we may or may not be close to herd immunity. Another factor to consider is that people are always moving about in and out of various zones or areas and between states, Mr. Jameel said.

Also Read: COVID-19 Vaccine Likely To Come By First Half Of 2021, Says WHO Chief Scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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World

4,55,62,966Cases
1,46,89,842Active
2,96,84,422Recovered
11,88,702Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 190 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 4,55,62,966 and 11,88,702 have died; 1,46,89,842 are active cases and 2,96,84,422 have recovered as on October 31, 2020 at 3:53 am.

India

81,37,119 48268Cases
5,82,649 -11737Active
74,32,829 59454Recovered
1,21,641 551Deaths
In India, there are 81,37,119 confirmed cases including 1,21,641 deaths. The number of active cases is 5,82,649 and 74,32,829 have recovered as on October 31, 2020 at 2:30 am.

State & District Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
DistrictCases
Mumbai45,478
Thane13,660
Pune9,920
Mumbai Suburban5,363
Aurangabad1,974
Nashik1,575
Raigad1,462
Palghar1,421
Solapur1,291
Jalgaon1,039
Akola757
Nagpur692
Kolhapur646
Satara629
Ratnagiri350
Amravati291
Dhule228
Hingoli208
Jalna201
Ahmednagar190
Nanded176
Yavatmal150
Sangli145
Latur139
Osmanabad125
Sindhudurg114
Buldhana88
Parbhani78
gondia69
Beed54
Nandurbar42
Gadchiroli42
Bhandara41
Chandrapur32
Washim13
Wardha11

16,72,858 6,190

1,25,971 2,178

15,03,050 8,241

43,837 127

DistrictCases
Kurnool795
Krishna557
Guntur511
Anantapur428
East Godavari356
Chittoor319
Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*296
Y.S.R.205
West Godavari199
Srikakulam183
Prakasam104
Visakhapatnam103
Vizianagaram23

8,20,565 2,886

25,514 754

7,88,375 3,623

6,676 17

DistrictCases
Udupi1,176
Kalaburagi669
Yadgir538
Bengaluru Urban529
Raichur369
Mandya346
Belagavi337
Bidar219
Hassan205
Davangere204
Vijayapura201
Dakshina Kannada179
Chikkaballapura149
Mysuru107
Bagalkote103
Uttara Kannada95
Shivamogga67
Dharwad61
Ballari60
Gadag45
Bengaluru Rural40
Tumakuru36
Kolar29
Haveri24
Chikkamagaluru19
Chitradurga14
Koppal5
Kodagu4
Ramanagara3
Chamarajanagara0

8,20,398 3,589

59,518 4,981

7,49,740 8,521

11,140 49

DistrictCases
Chennai23,324
Chengalpattu1,314
Thiruvallur774
Villupuram509
Kanchipuram503
Tiruvannamalai496
Cuddalore477
Ariyalur444
Tirunelveli433
Tuticorin333
Kallakurichi324
Madurai322
Salem258
Coimbatore188
Virudhunagar185
Dindigul175
Perambalur133
Ranipet133
Thanjavur130
Theni129
Tiruchirappalli119
Ramanathapuram119
Tiruppur116
Kanniyakumari110
Tenkasi103
Nagapattinam99
Karur88
Namakkal83
Erode75
Vellore71
Thiruvarur67
Pudukkottai53
Sivaganga46
Tirupathur45
Krishnagiri43
The Nilgiris17
Dharmapuri15

7,22,011 2,608

23,532 1,354

6,87,388 3,924

11,091 38

DistrictCases
Gautam Buddha Nagar1,119
Agra933
Ghaziabad794
Meerut504
Lucknow386
Saharanpur298
Kanpur Nagar286
Moradabad252
Varanasi243
Hapur225
Aligarh215
Basti214
Amethi206
Rampur203
Jaunpur194
Firozabad190
Barabanki168
Gorakhpur166
Bulandshahr166
Siddharth Nagar159
Ghazipur159
Bijnor157
Deoria143
Azamgarh138
Sant Kabeer Nagar132
Mathura129
Ayodhya120
Muzaffarnagar117
Sambhal116
Sultanpur97
Ambedkar Nagar92
Maharajganj85
Amroha80
Rae Bareli78
Bahraich73
Kheri72
Kannauj69
Baghpat68
Kushi Nagar67
Bhadohi60
Ballia60
Gonda59
Etah52
Hardoi49
Balrampur49
Mau48
Mainpuri46
Etawah46
Hathras43
Unnao42
Jalaun41
Jhansi41
Shamli40
Chandauli38
Auraiya37
Farrukhabad36
Sitapur32
Prayagraj30
Banda27
Shahjahanpur25
Shravasti23
Budaun23
Mirzapur22
Bareilly17
Kasganj16
Pratapgarh15
Pilibhit15
Sonbhadra10
Kaushambi6
Kanpur Dehat4
Chitrakoot4
Lalitpur3
Hamirpur3
Mahoba3
Fatehpur3

4,80,082 2,187

24,431 427

4,48,644 2,590

7,007 24

DistrictCases
Kannur357
Kasaragod333
Palakkad224
Malappuram119
Kollam118
Thrissur106
Thiruvananthapuram104
Pathanamthitta98
Kozhikode90
Alappuzha76
Kottayam73
Ernakulam60
Idukki40
Wayanad36

4,25,122 6,638

90,671 1,218

3,32,994 7,828

1,457 28

DistrictCases
North West5,463
Central4,817
West4,768
New Delhi3,405
North3,059
East2,472
South East2,446
South West2,391
South2,329
North East1,914
Shahdara1,580

3,81,644 5,891

32,363 1,411

3,42,811 4,433

6,470 47

DistrictCases
Kolkata2,777
Howrah1,435
24 Paraganas North1,031
Hooghly604
24 Paraganas South281
Maldah235
Dinajpur Uttar216
Coochbehar210
Birbhum206
Medinipur West159
Medinipur East153
Nadia139
Purba Bardhaman130
Murshidabad125
Bankura116
Darjeeling97
Jalpaiguri88
Paschim Bardhaman70
Purulia66
Dinajpur Dakshin50
Alipurduar39
Kalimpong18
Jhargram9

3,69,671 3,979

36,999 95

3,25,888 4,015

6,784 59

DistrictCases
Ganjam581
Jajapur322
Khordha238
Baleshwar190
Kendrapara164
Cuttack155
Bhadrak137
Balangir129
Puri103
Sundargarh102
Jagatsinghapur91
Nayagarh86
Mayurbhanj73
Nuapada69
Gajapati61
Dhenkanal36
Boudh34
Kendujhar34
Deogarh33
Kalahandi33
Sonepur29
Kandhamal28
Anugul26
Malkangiri20
Bargarh16
Koraput16
Sambalpur16
Jharsuguda8
Nabarangpur2
Rayagada2

2,88,646 1,547

13,500 264

2,73,838 1,800

1,308 11

DistrictCases
Hyderabad2,475
Ranga Reddy183
Suryapet87
Jagitial77
Nizamabad76
MedchalMalkajgiri75
Mancherial43
YadadriBhuvanagiri40
Jogulamba Gadwal40
Vikarabad40
Nalgonda33
Warangal Urban32
Mahabubnagar30
Sangareddy26
Khammam26
Adilabad22
Nirmal21
Karimnagar17
RajannaSircilla16
Medak11
Kamareddy11
Mahabubabad10
Jayashankar Bhupalapally9
Nagarkurnool8
Kumuram Bheem Asifabad8
Jangoan8
Siddipet7
Peddapalli5
Bhadradri Kothagudem5
Warangal Rural4
Mulugu3
Narayanpet3
Wanaparthy1

2,38,632 1,445

18,409 47

2,18,887 1,486

1,336 6

DistrictCases
Patna279
Bhagalpur266
Rohtas256
Khagaria253
Begusarai243
Madhubani199
Munger188
Jehanabad178
Katihar175
Darbhanga143
Samastipur139
Siwan139
PurbiChamparan138
Purnia135
Banka134
Buxar134
Nalanda123
Gopalganj123
Nawada122
Sheikhpura118
Gaya115
Kaimur (bhabua)105
Bhojpur103
Saran101
Muzaffarpur96
Saharsa88
Supaul87
Vaishali87
Madhepura82
Kishanganj75
Aurangabad75
Sitamarhi73
Lakhisarai72
Araria68
Pashchim Champaran57
Arwal52
Jamui47
Sheohar20

2,15,327 1,085

7,897 161

2,06,346 1,238

1,084 8

DistrictCases
Kamrup Metro276
Golaghat203
Nagaon143
Hojai89
Dima Hasao86
Karimganj85
Tinsukia84
Cachar80
Dibrugarh61
Hailakandi57
Lakhimpur57
Marigaon50
Dhemaji47
Kamrup42
Kokrajhar37
Dhubri30
Charaideo29
Barpeta28
Udalguri28
Sonitpur27
Jorhat24
Nalbari23
Darrang20
Sivasagar20
Goalpara19
Biswanath16
Baksa14
KarbiAnglong13
Bongaigaon12
Chirang6
West KarbiAnglong5
South SalmaraMancachar4
Majuli2

2,06,015 380

10,421 717

1,94,668 1,094

926 3

DistrictCases
Jaipur2,177
Jodhpur1,748
Udaipur724
Bharatpur563
Kota503
Nagaur500
Ajmer379
Dungarpur374
Pali352
Jhalawar329
Bhilwara250
Sikar231
Chittorgarh188
Tonk171
Jalore164
Rajsamand140
Sirohi130
Bikaner112
Banswara91
Alwar90
Churu81
Jhunjhunu64
Dausa61
Dholpur60
Baran59
Jaisalmer53
Barmer34
Hanumangarh31
SawaiMadhopur26
Karauli17
Pratapgarh14
Ganganagar8
Bundi5

1,95,213 1,794

15,251 303

1,78,064 2,087

1,898 10

DistrictCases
Bilaspur100
Korba100
Mungeli87
Baloda Bazar85
Jashpur77
Janjgir-Champa56
Mahasamund54
Rajnandgaon52
Kabirdham52
Raigarh47
Raipur46
Balod41
Korea39
Durg31
Bemetara21
Kanker19
Balrampur17
Surguja14
Gariyaband10
Surajpur9
Dhamtari6
Bijapur2
Bastar2
Dantewada0
Kondagaon0
Narayanpur0
Sukma0

1,85,306 1,718

22,350 19

1,60,918 1,650

2,038 49

DistrictCases
Ahmadabad17,125
Surat2,311
Vadodara1,555
Gandhinagar410
Mahesana159
Banas Kantha147
Bhavnagar146
Rajkot135
Arvalli134
Mahisagar125
Anand107
PanchMahals107
Patan105
SabarKantha101
Kachchh99
Kheda98
Jamnagar63
Bharuch56
Botad55
Surendranagar55
Valsad47
GirSomnath45
Dohad43
Chhotaudepur37
Naysari35
Junagadh31
Narmada25
DevbhumiDwarka22
Amreli16
Porbandar11
Tapi6
Dang5
Morbi4

1,71,847 969

13,168 64

1,54,968 1,027

3,711 6

DistrictCases
Indore3,839
Bhopal1,880
Ujjain799
Burhanpur351
Neemuch319
Jabalpur276
East Nimar266
Sagar228
Gwalior211
Khargone196
Dewas140
Dhar132
Mandsaur112
Morena109
Bhind87
Raisen71
Barwani60
Ratlam51
Rewa39
Shajapur39
Hoshangabad37
Vidisha37
Chhatarpur35
Betul35
Rajgarh31
Dindori29
Sheopur26
Damoh26
Satna24
Anuppur22
Panna20
Tikamgarh18
Sidhi17
Narsinghpur17
Chhindwara16
Agar Malwa15
Mandla15
Shivpuri15
Jhabua14
Shandol14
Singrauli13
Ashoknagar13
Datia12
Sehore12
Umaria10
Balaghat9
Guna8
Harda4
Alirajpur3
Katni3
Seoni2
Niwari0

1,70,690 691

9,294 395

1,58,455 1,074

2,941 12

DistrictCases
Gurugram2,950
Faridabad867
Sonipat404
Rohtak145
Palwal120
Jhajjar114
Karnal104
Hisar98
Ambala93
Panipat78
Nuh68
Bhiwani60
Rewari56
Kurukshetra55
Sirsa50
Kaithal48
Mahendragarh47
CharkiDadri43
Panchkula39
Fatehabad38
Jind38
Yamunanagar19

1,65,467 1,650

11,851 460

1,51,839 1,179

1,777 11

DistrictCases
Amritsar485
Jalandhar297
Ludhiana293
Tarn Taran163
Gurdaspur154
Hoshiarpur140
S.A.S Nagar137
Patiala132
Sangrur107
Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)99
Pathankot86
Rupnagar (Ropar)74
Faridkot74
Sri Muktsar Sahib71
Moga65
Bathinda60
Fatehgarh Sahib57
Fazilka53
Firozepur50
Kapurthala44
Mansa31
Barnala25

1,33,158 431

4,101 165

1,24,870 577

4,187 19

DistrictCases
East Singhbum170
Ranchi148
Hazaribagh110
Garhwa80
Ramgarh75
Koderma58
Simdega48
Dhanbad32
Gumla28
Palamu27
West Singhbhum21
SaraikelaKharsawan20
Giridih19
Bokaro16
Latehar14
Khunti10
Lohardaga8
Deoghar5
Dumka5
Pakur4
Jamtara2
Godda2
Chatra1
Sahebganj0

1,01,287 323

5,196 98

95,208 421

883

DistrictCases
Anantnag395
Srinagar300
Kulgam295
Baramulla271
Shopian255
Kupwara231
Bandipora175
Udhampur155
Ramban151
Jammu138
Budgam110
Pulwama108
Kathua53
Rajouri39
Ganderbal37
Poonch35
Doda27
Reasi26
Samba25
Kishtwar10
Mirpur0
Muzaffarabad0

94,330 566

6,835 93

86,024 654

1,471 5

DistrictCases
Dehradun370
Nainital323
Tehri Garhwal110
Haridwar94
Udam Singh Nagar83
Almora71
Champawat45
Pithoragarh43
Chamoli36
PauriGarhwal36
Bageshwar31
Rudraprayag30
Uttar Kashi24

61,915 349

3,634 89

57,270 258

1,011 2

DistrictCases
South Goa69
North Goa57

43,416 215

2,405 31

40,409 241

602 5

DistrictCases
Pondicherry111
Mahe4
Karaikal2
Yanam0

34,908 147

3,739 19

30,577 128

592

DistrictCases
Dhalai196
Sepahijala174
Gomati74
South Tripura53
Unakoti49
West Tripura45
Khowai24
North Tripura14

30,717 54

1,493 87

28,878 141

346

DistrictCases
Hamirpur117
Kangra105
Una41
Solan32
Chamba29
Bilaspur21
Mandi21
Sirmaur11
Shimla10
Kullu4
Kinnaur2
Lahaul And Spiti0

21,798 322

2,891 123

18,595 193

312 6

DistrictCases
Churachandpur32
Kangpokpi26
Imphal West21
Thoubal18
Imphal East10
Tengnoupal9
Bishnupur7
Senapati6
Chandel5
Kamjong5
Ukhrul4
Jiribam3
Pherzawl3
Kakching2
Tamenglong2
Noney1

18,272 221

4,303 5

13,805 222

164 4

DistrictCases
Changlang31
Papum Pare8
Lohit3
Namsai2
West Siang1
East Siang1
Upper Siang1
Tawang1
PakkeKessang1
West Kameng0
Upper Subansiri0
Tirap0
Siang0
Shi Yomi0
Anjaw0
Lower Subansiri0
Lower Dibang Valley0
Longding0
Leparada0
KurungKumey0
KraDaadi0
Kamle0
East Kameng0
Dibang Valley0
Lower Siang0

14,752 84

1,938 70

12,777 154

37

DistrictCases
Chandigarh313

14,351 59

657 8

13,469 67

225

DistrictCases
East Khasi Hills22
West Garo Hills5
South West Garo Hills4
North Garo Hills1
West Jaintia Hills1
West Khasi Hills1
East Garo Hills0
East Jaintia Hills0
Ribhoi0
South Garo Hills0
South West Khasi Hills0

9,382 79

1,170 156

8,125 235

87

DistrictCases
Dimapur20
Mon8
Kohima7
Kiphire3
Tuensang3
Peren2
Phek1
Longleng0
Mokokchung0
Wokha0
Zunheboto0

8,945 51

1,598 165

7,308 212

39 4

DistrictCases
Kargil77
LehLadakh43

6,194 55

627 0

5,493 55

74

DistrictCases
South Andamans33
Nicobars1
North And Middle Andaman1

4,317 12

182 10

4,076 22

59

DistrictCases
East District3
South District3
North District0
West District0

3,913 20

254 14

3,591 33

68 1

DistrictCases
Dadra And Nagar Haveli20

3,248 5

49 0

3,197 5

2

DistrictCases
Kolasib11
Aizawl10
Mamit8
Lawngtlai2
Lunglei2
Saitual1
Champhai0
Hnahthial0
Khawzawl0
Saiha0
Serchhip0

2,722 28

437 2

2,284 26

1

DistrictCases
Lakshadweep District0

0

0 0

0

0

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West Bengal To Employ 17,000 Doctors To Monitor COVID-19 Patients In Home Isolation

Doctors had earlier prescribed that patients in home isolation should immediately consult a medical practitioner in case their oxygen saturation level fell below 94 per cent and they experience breathlessness