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‘More Likely Than Not’ World Will Soon See 1.5°C Of Warming: World Meteorological Organization

Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5C is an El Niño weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months

'More Likely Than Not' World Will Soon See 1.5°C Of Warming: World Meteorological Organization
The likelihood of global temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5C has increased over time

London: For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday (May 17). But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above preindustrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5C by 2027, “it’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5C,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre who worked on the WMO’s latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.

Last year’s report put the odds at about 50-50.

Also Read: Explainer: Why El Nino Is A Concern For Indian Monsoon Rains?

Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5C is an El Niño weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.

The El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory”, said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement.

Still, the likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5C has increased over time. Between 2017 and 2021, for example, scientists estimated just a 10% chance of hitting 1.5C.

Unlike the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s climate projections which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO update provides more of a prediction-based long-range weather forecast.

The WMO also found a 98% chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing 2016 which saw global temperature impacted by about 1.3C (2.3F) of warming.

Also Read: Climate Change: Cyclones Intensifying And Retaining Strength For Longer Duration

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol have been working towards a clean and healthy India since 2014 via the Banega Swachh India initiative, which is helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. The campaign aims to highlight the inter-dependency of humans and the environment, and of humans on one another with the focus on One Health, One Planet, One Future – Leaving No One Behind. It stresses on the need to take care of, and consider, everyone’s health in India – especially vulnerable communities – the LGBTQ populationindigenous people, India’s different tribes, ethnic and linguistic minorities, people with disabilities, migrants, geographically remote populations, gender and sexual minorities. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign will continue to raise awareness on the same along with focussing on the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children, fight malnutrition, mental wellbeing, self care, science and health, adolescent health & gender awareness. Along with the health of people, the campaign has realised the need to also take care of the health of the eco-system. Our environment is fragile due to human activity, which is not only over-exploiting available resources, but also generating immense pollution as a result of using and extracting those resources. The imbalance has also led to immense biodiversity loss that has caused one of the biggest threats to human survival – climate change. It has now been described as a “code red for humanity.” The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene. Banega Swasth India will also be taking forward the dream of Swasth Bharat, the campaign feels that only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diarrhoea and the country can become a Swasth or healthy India.

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