Coronavirus Outbreak: Understanding What Is Flattening The Curve And Its ImportanceExperts explain the meaning of the term “Flattening the curve” of #Coronavirus and the importance of the ongoing lockdown 

New Delhi: On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete lockdown in India for 21 days (starting March 25) due to the spread of the highly contagious virus – COVID-19 that started last December from the Chinese city of Wuhan and soon spread to over 180 countries (according to Johns Hopkins University, national public health agencies). Since then India has come to a standstill as 1.3 billion people practice social distancing in the hope to break the chain of the infection in the country. The novel Coronavirus has spread to many parts of the country and as of April 1, according to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India confirmed 1637 cases, of which, 38 people have lost their lives due to COVID-19.

Also Read: Coronavirus Outbreak: Experts Explain What India Needs To Focus On, In Its Fight Against The Pandemic

Explaining the impact of the virus and why lockdown at this crucial time has become the only survival option, an expert from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) adds,

Think of your health care system as one car, which can only accommodate a certain number of people at once. What happens, if there is an emergency and you want to accommodate 100 people in one car, you won’t be able to do it, as a result, people will have to wait for their chance or their turn to ride. Similarly,  if COVID-19 spreads and infect more people at once there will be a shortage of hospital beds, hospital facilities for example ventilators and other equipment which are needed. To avoid this surge of coronavirus cases the important thing is to break the chain of infection and flatten down the curve, which can only happen if public practice social-distancing and isolation from others.

Also Read: Coronavirus Outbreak: A Complete List Of Places In India Where You Can Get Tested For COVID-19

Not just India, many other countries too are under lockdown. The worst-affected in the world – Italy that reported 10,779 deaths to date has also confirmed the positive impact of lockdown. According to Italian government adviser Luca Richeldi, the number of new people being taken into intensive care with the disease each day is dropping, courtesy Italy’s 3-week lockdown.

In China, which was earlier the epicentre of the virus, according to a paper by researchers in China, the United States and Britain, published in the journal Science, the lockdown in China may have prevented more than 700,000 new cases by delaying the spread of the virus.

As India goes through its 21-day lockdown, we speak to the experts to know about what “Flattening The Curve” being used in the context of this pandemic means and the role lockdowns play in the process.

Also Read: Why Does Coronavirus Spread So Easily? Experts Explain

What is Flattening The Curve?

Explaining what “Flattening the curve example of coronavirus” means, a spokesperson from Indian Council Of Medical Research said,

In Epidemiology, the idea to slow the spread of the virus or break the chain of infection in the community at one given time so that number of cases of the pandemic in a day gets reduced, which can then lessen the burden on hospitals, health care system in the country and healthcare staff is known as “flattening the curve”.

The spokesperson further explaining the term and added,

The crucial thing here to understand is that we all must know that no country in this world is prepared enough to treat all its population at one given time. Our health care system has a capacity, there is a certain number of beds, ventilators, resources and health care staff. If the pandemic becomes huge and there are more and more number of people infected with the virus, our health care system will result in selective servicing, meaning doctors or health care facilities will be limited. A tough decision from the system will need to be taken on who gets treatment and who doesn’t. Since this virus spreads at an exponential level (when the growth rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size), there might be a shortage of health care facilities and this gap between the people affected by the virus and facilities there in the country to treat them is where the curve comes from.

What Does The Curve Signify?

Explaining what the curve signifies, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has recently come up with a visualisation depicting why the need of the hour is “flattening the curve”. The dotted line shows the capacity of the healthcare system, if there are more cases reported on a given day, the curve will move above the dotted line, which means the virus is spreading fast and is beyond the scope of current facilities to cope. A curve lower than the dotted line shows that fewer people are diagnosed with the virus and they all can be managed within the current capacity of the healthcare system.”

Also Read: COVID-19: What Tests Are Needed? Who Should Take The Coronavirus Test? All You Need To Know

Why It Is Important To Flatten The Curve?

Highlighting why it is necessary to keep the curve flattened, Dr Daniela Cirilloa, Medical Microbiologist, Milano, Italy gave an example of her own country and said,

In Italy, what we have learned, the need to keep this curve down is very important. Because if the spread is higher, the load on facilities will be higher, as a result, the chances of getting your doctors affected become higher. We must learn to protect the doctors because if you start losing your healthcare workers or start quarantining them then your health system will collapse. We had TO face a lot of load in the health care system in the last few days and have lost a lot of doctors.

Dr Arvind Kumar, Chairman, Center for Chest Surgery and Director, Institute of Robotic Surgery at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital (SGRH), Founder & Managing Trustee, Lung Care Foundation adds,

Keeping the curve down essentially means diminishing the rate at which new cases occur. If there will be lesser cases, it will prevent in overtaxing the finite resources (which in this case is your hospital, health care system and facilities).

How Can The Curve Be Flattened?

According to the country’s apex health research body – Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), strictly-implemented social-distancing measures will reduce the overall expected number of cases of the novel coronavirus pandemic by 62 per cent.

Explaining the importance of social-distancing and how it can curb the spread of the infection, a spokesperson said,

Coronavirus is a disease that spreads from one person to another. The coronavirus infected person tends to give the infection to one or more others, who go on to give it to more people, and the chain continues. Now, to break the chain of infection, social-distancing becomes a key player.

Also Read: Coronavirus Outbreak: Here Are The Answers To All Your Frequently Asked Questions On COVID-19

Is India Effective In Flattening The Curve Of Coronavirus?

Expressing concerns over the lack of data and testing that has been done in India for coronavirus, Dr Sanjay Nagral, Surgeon Jaslok Hospital, Mumbai said,

First of all it is very early days of the coronavirus, so the trends, data and studies will change, as we still don’t know the denominator. My worry is that India did not test that much and adequately, if I talk about Mumbai, for at least 10 and 15 days, there was just one centre in central Mumbai and not in the suburbs areas. So access to testing it is still bit of a problem and therefore if you don’t test enough you will get certain data and based on that data you might see the positive signs but we need to know that this data present out there has some limitations to it.

Also Read: Fight Against Coronavirus: A Look Inside India’s First Dedicated COVID-19 Hospital In Mumbai

Shamika Ravi, Director Of Research, Brookings India referring to the data (long term trend) from John Hopkins points out that India over the period of time has shown a downward trend and has flattened the curve slightly. She adds,

The actual number of cases will continue to rise, it is important that people understand this.  If you look at pre-March 23 data, the rate at which the confirmed cases of coronavirus in India were rising, it was a rate at which we were doubling every three days. And from March 23 onwards that growth rate has declined, which means we are still growing but we are now growing at the rate where we are doubling every five days.

Further talking about the policies and lockdown that has come in effect in the wake of coronavirus outbreak in the country, Ms Ravi added,

The reason why we are seeing a huge expansion of coronavirus cases in US or EU countries is that those countries took the necessary steps after a certain time period. In India’s case,  the government very proactively from the third week of January started airlifting students from Wuhan and other affected areas. The students were not brought in and let loose into the population, they were isolated and were kept in camps and then screening and surveillance started to happen. These were some proactive and very good steps we took at the start and because of that we started to see a slight flattening of the curve.

She further said, “Whatever the number of tests we are doing, the confirmed cases for every 100 tests is pretty low. We only have 2 per cent of positive tests for every 100 tests and this is remarkably low if you compare it with that of US, where it is about 15-18 per cent and Italy where there are some 18-20 positive cases per 100 tests. So, if we compare, I think the transmission has been slow, it has definitely bought us more time and what we do with this time is very critical right now.”

World

58,29,522Cases
30,38,673Active
24,30,080Recovered
3,60,769Deaths
Coronavirus has spread to 188 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 58,29,522 and 3,60,769 have died; 30,38,673 are active cases and 24,30,080 have recovered as on May 29, 2020 at 11:06 am.

India

1,65,799 7466Cases
89,987 3877Active
71,106 3414Recovered
4,706 175Deaths
In India, there are 1,65,799 confirmed cases including 4,706 deaths. The number of active cases is 89,987 and 71,106 have recovered as on May 29, 2020 at 2:30 am.

State & District Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths
DistrictCases
Akola514
Aurangabad1465
Dhule125
Jalgaon562
Mumbai36382
Mumbai Suburban3436
Nagpur463
Nashik1116
Palghar841
Pune7573
Satara463
Solapur803
Thane9643
Yavatmal119
Ahmednagar91
Amravati205
Beed45
Bhandara25
Buldhana57
Chandrapur26
Hingoli138
Jalna131
Kolhapur424
Latur110
Nanded118
Nandurbar33
Parbhani54
Raigad1065
Ratnagiri212
Sangli101
Gadchiroli31
gondia60
Osmanabad67
Sindhudurg31
Wardha8
Washim11

59546 2598

38948 1815

18616 698

1982 85

DistrictCases
Chittoor257
Guntur412
Krishna478
Kurnool699
Sri Potti Sriramulu Nell*168
Anantapur344
East Godavari208
Prakasam64
Srikakulam85
Visakhapatnam78
West Godavari127
Y.S.R.160
Vizianagaram17

3251 80

1067 11

2125 68

59 1

DistrictCases
Bengaluru Rural15
Bengaluru Urban305
Mysuru101
Bagalkote83
Ballari47
Belagavi182
Bidar125
Chikkaballapura136
Dakshina Kannada107
Dharwad45
Gadag37
Kalaburagi266
Mandya265
Tumakuru36
Uttara Kannada79
Vijayapura98
Chamarajanagara0
Chikkamagaluru12
Chitradurga11
Davangere150
Hassan135
Haveri12
Kodagu4
Kolar21
Koppal4
Raichur135
Ramanagara1
Shivamogga36
Udupi128
Yadgir225

2533 115

1652 62

834 53

47

DistrictCases
North Goa39
South Goa25

69 1

31

38 1

0

DistrictCases
Chengalpattu699
Chennai13166
Kanchipuram330
Madurai274
Namakkal94
Ranipet99
Thanjavur126
Thiruvallur578
Thiruvarur50
Tiruppur115
Vellore48
Virudhunagar144
Ariyalur412
Coimbatore167
Cuddalore443
Dharmapuri8
Dindigul135
Erode70
Kallakurichi283
Kanniyakumari71
Karur81
Nagapattinam63
Perambalur124
Pudukkottai32
Ramanathapuram85
Salem184
Sivaganga39
Tenkasi85
The Nilgiris16
Theni115
Tiruchirappalli87
Tirunelveli377
Tirupathur31
Tiruvannamalai343
Tuticorin195
Villupuram432
Krishnagiri28

19372 827

8679 176

10548 639

145 12

DistrictCases
Kannur275
Kottayam51
Alappuzha40
Idukki28
Kasaragod276
Kollam62
Kozhikode62
Malappuram69
Palakkad132
Pathanamthitta48
Thiruvananthapuram57
Thrissur48
Ernakulam47
Wayanad30

1088 84

526 81

555 3

7

DistrictCases
Raipur11
Korba41
Balod24
Baloda Bazar14
Balrampur9
Bastar0
Bemetara13
Bijapur1
Bilaspur49
Dantewada0
Dhamtari2
Durg12
Gariyaband5
Janjgir-Champa15
Jashpur16
Kabirdham13
Kanker12
Kondagaon0
Korea9
Mahasamund1
Mungeli81
Narayanpur0
Raigarh14
Rajnandgaon35
Sukma0
Surajpur8
Surguja7

399 30

316 30

83

0

DistrictCases
Hyderabad1601
MedchalMalkajgiri46
Ranga Reddy100
Suryapet84
Vikarabad38
Warangal Urban29
Adilabad22
Jagitial59
Jangoan7
Jayashankar Bhupalapally9
Jogulamba Gadwal41
Kamareddy10
Karimnagar11
Khammam11
Kumuram Bheem Asifabad6
Mahabubnagar18
Mancherial33
Medak7
Nalgonda23
Narayanpet2
Nirmal21
Nizamabad74
RajannaSircilla12
Sangareddy17
Bhadradri Kothagudem4
Mahabubabad10
Mulugu3
Nagarkurnool4
Peddapalli3
Siddipet4
Wanaparthy0
Warangal Rural3
YadadriBhuvanagiri36

2256 158

844 93

1345 61

67 4

DistrictCases
Baleshwar143
Bhadrak111
Jajapur245
Dhenkanal17
Kalahandi25
Kendrapara71
Khordha128
Koraput8
Sundargarh43
Anugul21
Balangir68
Bargarh2
Boudh33
Cuttack87
Deogarh32
Gajapati34
Ganjam397
Jagatsinghapur55
Jharsuguda6
Kandhamal15
Kendujhar20
Malkangiri18
Mayurbhanj19
Nabarangpur2
Nayagarh66
Nuapada26
Puri87
Rayagada0
Sambalpur8
Sonepur5

1660 67

766

887 154

7

DistrictCases
Barwani42
Bhopal1483
Dewas96
Dhar122
East Nimar240
Gwalior132
Indore3426
Jabalpur238
Ujjain743
Agar Malwa13
Alirajpur3
Betul23
Burhanpur297
Chhindwara9
Dindori19
Harda4
Hoshangabad37
Khargone124
Mandsaur110
Morena89
Raisen68
Ratlam31
Sagar163
Shajapur10
Shandol9
Sheopur7
Tikamgarh9
Vidisha21
Anuppur5
Ashoknagar12
Balaghat8
Bhind53
Chhatarpur18
Damoh16
Datia9
Guna3
Jhabua14
Katni2
Mandla13
Narsinghpur10
Neemuch160
Niwari0
Panna4
Rajgarh10
Rewa39
Satna24
Sehore9
Seoni2
Shivpuri8
Sidhi13
Singrauli11
Umaria6

7453 192

3082 61

4050 123

321 8

DistrictCases
Ahmadabad12840
Anand100
Arvalli115
Banas Kantha112
Bhavnagar125
Gandhinagar252
PanchMahals84
Surat1626
Vadodara1018
Bharuch42
Botad55
Chhotaudepur25
Dang3
Dohad39
GirSomnath46
Jamnagar53
Kachchh68
Kheda75
Mahesana102
Mahisagar122
Narmada18
Naysari24
Patan83
Rajkot110
SabarKantha93
Surendranagar35
Tapi6
Valsad33
Amreli10
DevbhumiDwarka11
Junagadh28
Morbi4
Porbandar8

15562 367

6599

8003 454

960 22

DistrictCases
Ajmer344
Banswara103
Bharatpur131
Jaipur1954
Jhalawar247
Jodhpur1332
Kota429
Nagaur440
Alwar55
Barmer22
Bhilwara196
Bikaner108
Chittorgarh220
Churu24
Dausa50
Dholpur33
Dungarpur287
Hanumangarh24
Jaisalmer48
Jhunjhunu64
Karauli12
Pali185
Rajsamand110
SawaiMadhopur23
Sikar69
Tonk169
Udaipur644
Baran8
Bundi1
Ganganagar7
Jalore97
Pratapgarh13
Sirohi77

8067 364

3070

4817 360

180 7

DistrictCases
Faridabad372
Sonipat197
Ambala51
Bhiwani14
CharkiDadri15
Fatehabad15
Gurugram1200
Hisar29
Jhajjar122
Jind30
Kaithal12
Karnal42
Kurukshetra26
Nuh68
Palwal42
Panchkula45
Panipat61
Rohtak35
Sirsa9
Yamunanagar8
Mahendragarh38
Rewari24

1504 123

604 79

881 43

19 1

DistrictCases
Agra904
Aligarh145
Amroha66
Bareilly15
Bijnor93
Bulandshahr112
Firozabad172
Gautam Buddha Nagar597
Kanpur Nagar258
Lucknow303
Mathura96
Meerut421
Moradabad212
Muzaffarnagar77
Rae Bareli76
Rampur179
Saharanpur264
Sant Kabeer Nagar83
Varanasi177
Auraiya24
Ayodhya97
Azamgarh71
Baghpat26
Bahraich65
Balrampur36
Banda25
Basti148
Bhadohi32
Budaun21
Etah31
Etawah38
Ghaziabad499
Ghazipur111
Gonda42
Gorakhpur80
Hapur150
Hardoi37
Jalaun40
Jaunpur162
Jhansi39
Kannauj46
Kasganj6
Kaushambi4
Mainpuri24
Mau20
Mirzapur21
Pilibhit14
Pratapgarh10
Prayagraj14
Sambhal84
Shamli29
Shravasti24
Sitapur29
Sultanpur77
Unnao22
Ambedkar Nagar62
Amethi94
Ballia39
Barabanki147
Chandauli30
Chitrakoot4
Deoria71
Farrukhabad29
Fatehpur1
Hamirpur3
Hathras24
Kanpur Dehat4
Kheri60
Kushi Nagar20
Lalitpur2
Maharajganj48
Mahoba1
Shahjahanpur18
Siddharth Nagar102
Sonbhadra5

7170 179

2758

4215 224

197 15

DistrictCases
Central3136
East1149
New Delhi2460
North2137
North East1055
North West3071
Shahdara1002
South1174
South East1344
South West1387
West2518

16281 1024

8470 780

7495 231

316 13

DistrictCases
Dhubri15
Goalpara14
Marigaon26
Baksa3
Barpeta10
Biswanath3
Bongaigaon8
Cachar44
Charaideo13
Chirang5
Darrang6
Dhemaji8
Dibrugarh5
Dima Hasao8
Golaghat121
Hailakandi16
Hojai67
Jorhat11
Kamrup21
Kamrup Metro213
KarbiAnglong11
Karimganj36
Kokrajhar3
Lakhimpur29
Majuli1
Nagaon54
Nalbari21
Sivasagar8
Sonitpur19
South SalmaraMancachar4
Tinsukia14
Udalguri4
West KarbiAnglong0

856 75

748 58

104 17

4

DistrictCases
East District0
North District0
South District1
West District0

1

1

0

0

DistrictCases
Buxar133
Gaya74
Munger152
Patna224
Rohtas254
Arwal38
Aurangabad58
Banka84
Begusarai125
Bhagalpur140
Bhojpur74
Darbhanga103
Gopalganj94
Jehanabad145
Kaimur (bhabua)61
Lakhisarai43
Madhepura61
Madhubani167
Nalanda94
Nawada70
PurbiChamparan100
Purnia40
Saran53
Siwan66
Vaishali78
Araria42
Jamui34
Katihar111
Khagaria123
Kishanganj35
Muzaffarpur52
Pashchim Champaran48
Saharsa65
Samastipur79
Sheikhpura76
Sheohar7
Sitamarhi48
Supaul45

3296 235

2070 107

1211 128

15

DistrictCases
24 Paraganas North583
24 Paraganas South157
Darjeeling22
Howrah1015
Jalpaiguri14
Kalimpong7
Kolkata1979
Maldah150
Medinipur East89
Medinipur West32
Hooghly265
Murshidabad81
Nadia76
Paschim Bardhaman48
Purba Bardhaman78
Alipurduar6
Bankura29
Birbhum111
Coochbehar39
Dinajpur Dakshin7
Dinajpur Uttar153
Jhargram9
Purulia11

4536 344

2573 248

1668 90

295 6

DistrictCases
South Andamans33
Nicobars1
North And Middle Andaman1

33

0

33

0

DistrictCases
Pondicherry52
Karaikal2
Mahe4
Yanam0

51 5

37 3

14 2

0

DistrictCases
Anjaw0
Changlang0
Dibang Valley0
East Kameng0
East Siang0
Kamle0
KraDaadi0
KurungKumey0
Leparada0
Lohit1
Longding0
Lower Dibang Valley0
Lower Siang0
Lower Subansiri0
Namsai0
PakkeKessang1
Papum Pare2
Shi Yomi0
Siang0
Tawang0
Tirap0
Upper Siang0
Upper Subansiri0
West Kameng0
West Siang0

3 1

2 1

1

0

DistrictCases
Dimapur3
Kiphire0
Kohima0
Longleng0
Mokokchung0
Mon0
Peren0
Phek0
Tuensang2
Wokha0
Zunheboto0

18 14

18 14

0

0

DistrictCases
Dadra And Nagar Haveli3

2

2

0

0

DistrictCases
Ranchi139
Bokaro17
Deoghar5
Dhanbad16
Garhwa58
Giridih17
Hazaribagh55
Jamtara3
Koderma32
Simdega10
Chatra2
Dumka3
East Singhbum38
Godda2
Gumla18
Khunti3
Latehar10
Lohardaga4
Pakur4
Palamu19
Ramgarh15
Sahebganj0
SaraikelaKharsawan4
West Singhbhum15

469 21

253

212 27

4

DistrictCases
Gomati30
North Tripura7
Dhalai171
Khowai13
Sepahijala10
South Tripura6
Unakoti2
West Tripura10

242 12

75 10

167 2

0

DistrictCases
Kargil57
LehLadakh35

73 20

30 20

43

0

DistrictCases
Anantnag253
Bandipora141
Shopian107
Srinagar203
Baramulla136
Budgam71
Ganderbal27
Jammu53
Kathua33
Kulgam190
Kupwara153
Rajouri14
Ramban67
Reasi14
Samba12
Udhampur63
Mirpur0
Muzaffarabad0
Doda2
Kishtwar4
Poonch16
Pulwama44

2036 115

1150 109

859 5

27 1

DistrictCases
Chamba20
Hamirpur98
Kangra73
Sirmaur4
Solan23
Una32
Bilaspur18
Kinnaur0
Kullu1
Lahaul And Spiti0
Mandi13
Shimla8

276 3

201 3

70

5

DistrictCases
Jalandhar263
Ludhiana247
Patiala124
Amritsar379
Barnala24
Faridkot70
Firozepur50
Gurdaspur143
Hoshiarpur120
Kapurthala41
Mansa32
Moga65
Pathankot46
S.A.S Nagar120
Sangrur105
Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar (Nawanshahr)95
Sri Muktsar Sahib68
Tarn Taran174
Bathinda52
Fatehgarh Sahib48
Fazilka50
Rupnagar (Ropar)63

2158 19

172

1946 28

40

DistrictCases
Haridwar36
Dehradun138
Nainital144
Almora41
Bageshwar16
Chamoli18
Champawat10
PauriGarhwal17
Pithoragarh22
Rudraprayag18
Tehri Garhwal61
Udam Singh Nagar61
Uttar Kashi11

500 31

417 31

79

4

DistrictCases
Bishnupur0
Chandel2
Churachandpur20
Imphal East4
Imphal West6
Jiribam0
Kakching0
Kamjong3
Kangpokpi2
Noney0
Pherzawl0
Senapati1
Tamenglong0
Tengnoupal2
Thoubal1
Ukhrul0

55 11

50 10

5 1

0

DistrictCases
Chandigarh290

288 9

95 7

189 2

4

DistrictCases
Daman0
Diu0

0

0

0

0

DistrictCases
East Khasi Hills18
East Garo Hills0
East Jaintia Hills0
North Garo Hills1
Ribhoi0
South Garo Hills0
South West Garo Hills0
South West Khasi Hills0
West Garo Hills2
West Jaintia Hills0
West Khasi Hills0

21 1

8 1

12

1

DistrictCases
Aizawl1
Champhai0
Hnahthial0
Khawzawl0
Kolasib0
Lawngtlai0
Lunglei0
Mamit0
Saiha0
Saitual0
Serchhip0

1

0

1

0

DistrictCases
Lakshadweep District0

0

0

0

0

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