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New Tool Predicts Changes That May Make COVID Variants More Infectious

The tool, described in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, could enable the computational surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and provide advance warning of potentially dangerous variants with an even higher binding affinity potential

New Tool Predicts Changes That May Make COVID Variants More Infectious
  • Emerging variants could potentially be highly contagious: Professor
  • The team used neural network model -- a type of deep-learning algorithm
  • The tool is used to predict changes in amino acid in virus’s spike proteins

Washington: Researchers have developed a new method that can predict with reasonable accuracy the changes in SARS-CoV-2 that may confer increased infectivity to the virus that causes COVID-19. The tool, described in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, could enable the computational surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and provide advance warning of potentially dangerous variants with an even higher binding affinity potential. This can aid in the early implementation of public health measures to prevent the spread of the virus and perhaps even may inform vaccine booster formulations, the researchers said.

Also Read: New 3D Printed Vaccine Patch More Effective Than Traditional Jabs: US Study

The framework can predict the changes in amino acid — molecules linked together to form proteins — in the virus’s spike protein that may improve its binding to human cells and confer increased infectivity to the virus, they said. SARS-CoV-2 uses the spike protein to enter and infect the human cells.

Emerging variants could potentially be highly contagious in humans and other animals, said Suresh Kuchipudi, a clinical professor at Penn State in the US.

“Therefore, it is critical to proactively assess what amino acid changes may likely increase the infectiousness of the virus,” Mr Kuchipudi said.

The team used a novel, two-step computational procedure to create a model for predicting which changes in amino acids may occur in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2’s spike protein that could affect its ability to bind to the ACE2 receptors of human and other animal cells.

Also Read: COVID-19 Expected To Transmit For A Very Long Time: Senior WHO Official

According to Mr Kuchipudi, the currently circulating variants include one or more mutations that have led to amino acid changes in the RBD of the spike protein.

These amino acid changes may have conferred fitness advantages and increased infectivity through a variety of mechanisms. Increased binding affinity of the RBD of the spike protein with the human ACE2 receptor is one such mechanism, he said.

The researchers first tested the predictive power of a technique, called Molecular Mechanics-Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-GBSA) analysis, to quantify the binding affinity of the RBD for ACE2. MM-GBSA analysis sums up multiple types of energy contributions associated with the virus’s RBD “sticking” to the human ACE2 receptor.

Using data from already existing variants, the team led by Costas D Maranas, Professor at Penn State, found that this technique was only partially able to predict the binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2’s RBD for ACE2. The team used a neural network model — a type of deep-learning algorithm — and trained it using experimentally available data on binding in variants with single amino acid changes. They found that they could predict with more than 80 per cent accuracy whether certain amino acid changes improved or worsened binding affinity for the dataset explored.

Also Read: New Guidelines On Treatment Of Long-Term Health Conditions Post Covid

This combined MM-GBSA with a neural network model approach appears to be quite effective at predicting the effect of amino acid changes not used during model training, said Professor Maranas.

The model also allowed for the prediction of the binding strength of various already observed SARS-CoV-2 amino acid changes seen in the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants. This may provide the computational means for predicting such affinities in yet-to-be discovered variants, the researchers said. The researchers noted that SARS-CoV-2 can switch hosts as a result of increased contact between the virus and potential new hosts.

The new tool can help make sense of the enormous virus sequence data generated by genomic surveillance, Mr Kuchipudi said.

“In particular, it may help determine if the virus can adapt and spread among agricultural animals, thereby informing targeted mitigation measures,” he added.

Also Read: WHO Recommends Antibody Treatment For Critical Covid Patients

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

NDTV – Dettol have been working towards a clean and healthy India since 2014 via Banega Swachh India initiative, which is helmed by Campaign Ambassador Amitabh Bachchan. The campaign aims to highlight the inter-dependency of humans and the environment, and of humans on one another with the focus on One Health, One Planet, One Future – Leaving No One Behind. It stresses on the need to take care of, and consider, everyone’s health in India – especially vulnerable communities – the LGBTQ populationindigenous people, India’s different tribes, ethnic and linguistic minorities, people with disabilities, migrants, geographically remote populations, gender and sexual minorities. In wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the need for WASH (WaterSanitation and Hygiene) is reaffirmed as handwashing is one of the ways to prevent Coronavirus infection and other diseases. The campaign will continue to raise awareness on the same along with focussing on the importance of nutrition and healthcare for women and children, fight malnutrition, mental wellbeing, self care, science and health, adolescent health & gender awareness. Along with the health of people, the campaign has realised the need to also take care of the health of the eco-system. Our environment is fragile due to human activity,  that is not only over-exploiting available resources, but also generating immense pollution as a result of using and extracting those resources. The imbalance has also led to immense biodiversity loss that has caused one of the biggest threats to human survival – climate change. It has now been described as a “code red for humanity.” The campaign will continue to cover issues like air pollutionwaste managementplastic banmanual scavenging and sanitation workers and menstrual hygiene. Banega Swasth India will also be taking forward the dream of Swasth Bharat, the campaign feels that only a Swachh or clean India where toilets are used and open defecation free (ODF) status achieved as part of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, can eradicate diseases like diahorrea and the country can become a Swasth or healthy India. 


Coronavirus has spread to 196 countries. The total confirmed cases worldwide are 26,21,50,955 and 52,07,350 have died; 22,29,25,306 are active cases and 3,40,18,299 have recovered as on November 30, 2021 at 3:50 am.


3,45,87,822 6,990Cases
3,40,18,299 10,116Recovered
4,68,980 190Deaths
In India, there are 3,45,87,822 confirmed cases including 4,68,980 deaths. The number of active cases is 1,00,543 and 3,40,18,299 have recovered as on November 30, 2021 at 2:30 am.

State Details

State Cases Active Recovered Deaths

66,34,980 536

11,525 338

64,82,493 853

1,40,962 21


51,37,091 3,382

45,138 2,514

50,51,998 5,779

39,955 117


29,95,857 257

6,907 47

29,50,747 205

38,203 5

Tamil Nadu

27,26,197 730

8,291 46

26,81,434 767

36,472 9

Andhra Pradesh

20,72,725 101

2,102 38

20,56,184 138

14,439 1

Uttar Pradesh

17,10,387 5

86 3

16,87,391 2


West Bengal

16,15,378 511

7,733 71

15,88,172 571

19,473 11


14,40,900 34

285 3

14,15,517 36

25,098 1


10,48,880 197

2,165 26

10,38,306 221

8,409 2


10,06,779 16

318 12

9,92,868 28



9,54,770 12

187 12

9,45,628 24



8,27,435 27

262 22

8,17,081 49


Madhya Pradesh

7,93,150 12

126 4

7,82,496 8



7,71,692 16

165 3

7,61,473 19



7,26,219 2

39 2

7,16,517 4



6,75,798 184

3,581 46

6,68,227 137

3,990 1


6,16,708 140

2,595 96

6,08,015 230

6,098 6


6,03,258 18

329 11

5,86,330 26

16,599 3


3,49,232 11

95 2

3,43,997 9



3,44,227 8

132 44

3,36,687 51

7,408 1

Jammu And Kashmir

3,36,681 150

1,626 32

3,30,579 181

4,476 1

Himachal Pradesh

2,27,093 90

824 29

2,22,422 61



1,78,890 24

276 3

1,75,230 19

3,384 2


1,34,810 437

3,805 95

1,30,512 531

493 1


1,28,893 12

296 16

1,26,725 28



1,25,169 17

655 30

1,22,539 43

1,975 4


84,791 4

78 8

83,890 10

823 2


84,461 17

285 16

82,704 32

1,472 1


65,456 8

58 4

64,578 4


Arunachal Pradesh

55,273 4

35 2

54,958 2



32,233 5

121 6

31,709 11



32,109 9

140 5

31,273 4



21,540 12

250 18

21,076 29

214 1

Dadra And Nagar Haveli


1 0





24 4

10,319 4


Andaman And Nicobar Islands

7,683 2

8 2



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